From	Jonathan T. Overpeck	Date	Thu, 4 Feb 1999 11:43:09 -0700
To	Frank Oldfield
CC	messerli@giub.unibe.ch, domraynaud@glaciog.ujf-grenoble.fr, pedersen@eos.ubc.ca, Keith Briffa
Subject	Re: Finances and futures
Hi Frank and friends - I'm happy to see the budget looking sound and feel Franks suggestions are good ones in terms of money to spend this year. Building on the Swiss paleoclimate course is a good idea, and, of course, we should decide on future REDIE investments at future SSC's. My gut feeling is that REDIE will have to continue to be a lower priority in the future, BUT that we should stay committed to getting scientists (including youngsters) from developing countries to our science mtgs - makes more sense than training probably, given tight budgets. Thanks,Peck >Dear colleagues, > >I now share with you some ideas about our financial situation in PAGES. I >think the information should be treated confidentially at this stage and >certainly with some discretion. > >During the course of last year, it was very difficult to keep track of our >financial position from month to month, partly because it took our >financial contacts in the University of Bern an inordinately long time to >sort out the financial implications of the OSM, partly because, in the >course of doing this, they made some understandable but very significant >and confusing errors. Niklaus has now managed to sort these out and we also >have our confirmed budget for 1999 - which means that we can begin to do >some real planning. > >The first significant point is that we are carrying over into 1999 a >surplus some US$15k greater than we began with in 1998. In fact we have >been building up our 'carry-over' steadily since the beginning of 1996 and >it is now around $67k - between 13% and 14% or our annual budget and a much >higher proprtion of that part of our budget that is uncommitted each year. >Whilst I believe it would be unwise to eliminate it entirely, I do think we >should aim to reduce it significantly provided there is a good rationale >for the means we choose. > >I have attached a summary of how I see things for 1999. You will see that >even if we spend all the funds committed to workshops at our Pallanza >meeting, we still have a very healthy surplus. On past experience, I do not >think this sum will be exceeded during 1999 - even if we have one or two >more urgent requests, they are more than likely to be offset by delayed >workshops, so I think this is actually likely to be an over-estimate. >Moreover, I have assumed that ALL the money allocated by IGBP for Synthesis >will be spent in 1999. We are under some pressure to do this, but the pace >of the exercise makes me suspect that we may have difficulty. > >At the end of the Table, I list 3 additional commitments I would like to >propose for prioiritizing and I discuss each briefly below: > >1. REDIE (which you may remember stands for Regional Educational and >Infrastructure Efforts (about which we have, so far, said very little and >done even less). > > In this area, one of the ideas gently simmering on the back burner has >been the notion of winning support from START to run something like a >Summer School for selected young scientists from developing countries. This >emerged from an informal discussion between ouselves in the Office, Bruno >and Roland Fuchs, the Director of START, when he was over here on a visit. >At the time, he seemed quite keen on the idea, but has since been silent. >No matter, I still feel it is an idea worth working towards at least up to >the pre-commitment stage and I have been exploring informally the >possibility of basing such a course in London. > >This coming summer, I think we may have a chance to do a kind of partial >trial run. Thomas Stocker and Andy Lotter (a first class paleolimnologist >here in Bern) plan to run a Summer School nearby this year. Thomas >approached me some time ago to see if PAGES could support participation by >any overseas students and my reply was a very cautious one to the effect >that we would normally expect to be approached and have an input at the >planning stage and that we would only really consider such a possibility in >the context of training for scientists from developing countries. Having >discussed the whole thing more fully with him, I begin to wonder whether >it may offer quite an interesting possibility. My plan would be to seek >nomination of/applications from say 3 to 5 young scientists from different >parts of the developing/former eastern bloc world (represnting each of the >PEP Transects) and bring them to Bern both for the course and for a short >period linked into the PAGES Office. The ideas behind the latter part of >the suggestion would be to > - support their participation if need be, > - give them some sense of PAGES and its role in nternational global >change science/IGBP etc and > - solicit feedback and advice about what the shape of an ideal course for >developing country scientists interested in PAGES activities might be. > >I believe that even if we did not have something like REDIE in our >Implementation Plan it should be an important commitment; since we do, it >is an absolute obligation which we ignore at the risk of serious >allegations of bad faith. > >2. I feel there will be a need to follow up my PEP II visit to Australia >with something positive there. John Dodson is responding well to >suggestions about more co-ordination and bringing in more colleagues to >share the responsibility, but I think that if whatever we agree in Perth is >actually to work, there will be a need to fund a WORKshop (as distinct from >a mini-symposium) of thematic and/or regional co-ordinators to get their >act together. We should offer money for this. > >3. The difference it has made having Cathy Stickley (based at UCL) working >for PEP III is fantastic, but we risk losing her input unless something can >be done. I'm negotiating with ESF, but it will be over a year before their >finely grinding mills deliver anything. Rick and Francoise are also going >to apply to EC for Framework 5 funding, but that will be no quicker. I am >seriously considering asking Zimmie to help bridge the gap since he did not >quite close the door when I last talked this through with him, but I feel >that if I do this, PAGES might need to put up a bit more colateral, the >more so since we are in credit. > >Both 2 and 3 reflect my view that the PEP's remain an absolutely vital part >of the PAGES structure and need to be supported if that is the only way >they can achieve their objectives. > >All three of the above suggestions require some endorsement in principle >before I take them any further. If we were to spend all the funds envisaged >before the end of 1999, our budget credit would be very much reduced - >probably by too much, but I believe the PEP funding would probably be paced >over a longer period and that the other items in our budget are more likely >to be marginally under- than over-spent, so I do not feel we are proposing >any unreasonable risk. > >I look forward to any reactions members of EXCOMM may have to these >suggestions. > >Withh all good wishes, > >Frank > > >Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:Budget for 1999 (RTF /MSWD) (0000B314) >____________________________________________ >Frank Oldfield > >Executive Director >PAGES IPO >Barenplatz 2 >CH-3011 Bern, Switzerland > >e-mail: frank.oldfield@pages.unibe.ch > >Phone: +41 31 312 3133; Fax: +41 31 312 3168 >http://www.pages.unibe.ch/pages.html Dr. Jonathan T. Overpeck Head, NOAA Paleoclimatology Program National Geophysical Data Center 325 Broadway E/GC Boulder, CO 80303 tel: 303-497-6172 fax: 303-497-6513 jto@ngdc.noaa.gov For OVERNIGHT (e.g., Fedex) deliveries, PLEASE USE: Dr. Jonathan Overpeck NOAA National Geophysical Data Center 3100 Marine Street, RL3, Rm A136 Boulder, CO 80303 tel: 303-497-6160