FromMichael E. MannDateFri, 02 Mar 2001 12:00:03 -0500
ToTom Crowley
CCray bradley, Malcolm K. Hughes, Keith Briffa, Tom Crowley, Phil Jones, Thomas L. Delworth, hpollack@geo.lsa.umich.edu
SubjectRe: Science letter

Thanks for clarifying Tom,

Yes, these are my sentiments as well, and I would conditionally sign-on to
this effort. In the meantime, I think there is a lot of good science to be
done!

mike

At 10:53 AM 3/2/01 -0600, tom crowley wrote:
>Dear All,
>
>A few more comments re Mikes note - Mike and I thought that if we cannot
>make a case to our colleagues, why muddy the waters further (as either
>Keith, Malcolm, or Ray said)?
>
>That said, I don't think this has been wasted time. I still think a
>thoughtful short paper on the subject of Holocene climate change wold be
>useful, this time stating it from OUR perspective (i.e., not focusing
>exculsively on Broeckers message). By broadening this it may be more
>interesting; we could also include a couple of figures and maybe add some
>input from Tom Delworth and Henry Pollack. I would be willing to take a
>crack at this, and if anyone wants to CONDITIONALLY sign on, I would be
>more than happy to include you.
>
>I probably would not begin this until late April, after our trip to Germany
>and the meeting in Virginia.
>
>Tom
>
>ps fyi I counted the average spacing between the warm and cold
>oscillations in the iron oscillations illustrated by Broecker. Regardless
>of whether warm or cold are used, the mean spacing is indeed 1.5 k,
>although the s.d. is 0.4k HOWEVER, the mean spacing between the four main
>warm phases illustrated by Broecker on the same figure is, believe it or
>not, 2.15! much closer to the solar peak. This calls to mind the
>interesting (and clever) Wigley and Raper paper in Proc. Roy. Soc. (1990)
>indicating that, given the uncertainties in chronology, solar forcing plays
>a role i n Holocenn climate change. It therefore seems that the conveyor
>is indeed oscillating but the time scale of the larger scale CLIMATE shifts
>may be more regulated by solar, with volcanism adding some stochastic
>contribution. Something like this is worth adding to the proposed Eos
>piece.
>
>Tom
>
>
>
>Thomas J. Crowley
>Dept. of Oceanography
>Texas A&M University
>College Station, TX 77843-3146
>979-845-0795
>979-847-8879 (fax)
>979-845-6331 (alternate fax)

_______________________________________________________________________
Professor Michael E. Mann
Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall
University of Virginia
Charlottesville, VA 22903
_______________________________________________________________________
e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (804) 924-7770 FAX: (804) 982-2137
http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml