From	Michael E. Mann	Date	Fri, 05 Sep 2003 13:34:53 -0400
To	Phil Jones
CC	Keith Briffa, Michael E. Mann
Subject	Re: Something for the weekend !
sorry phil, one more relevant item. I've cc'd in Keith on this, since you had mentioned that you had discussed the issue w/ him. This is from Dave Meko's (quite nice!) statistics lecture notes: [1]http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~dmeko/notes_8.pdf See page 2, section 8.1. He provides two (in reality, as I mentioned before, there are really 3!) basic boundary constraints on a smooth (ie, in "filtering"). The first method he refers to is what I called the "minimum norm" constraint (assuming the long-term mean beyond the boundary). The second, which he calls "reflecting the data across the endpoints", is the constraint I have been employing which, again, is mathematically equivalent to insuring a point of inflection at the boundary. This is the preferable constraint for non-stationary mean processes, and we are, I assert, on very solid ground (preferable ground in fact) in employing this boundary constraint for series with trends... mike At 05:20 PM 9/5/2003 +0100, Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Attached some more plots. 1. Figure 7 - Forcing. Guess this is it. Could cut the y scale to -6 and say in caption that 1258 or 1259 is the only event to go beyond this, then give value in caption. Scale will then widen out. OK to do ? Caspar's solar now there. 2. Fig 2a - first go at coverage. This is % coverage over 1856-2002 from HadCRUT2v. 3. Fig 4 again. Moved legends and reduced scale. Talked to Keith and we both think that the linear trend padding will get criticised. Did you use this in GRL and or Fig 5 for RoG with Scott. If so we need to explain it. On this plot all the series are in different units, so normalised over 1751-1950 (or equiv for decades) then smoothed. Again here I can reduce scale further and Law Dome can go out of the plot. Thoughts ? Think all should be same scale. Have got GKSS model runs for Fig 8. Were you happy Hans' conditions. If so I'll send onto Scott. Next week I only have Fig 2b to do. This will be annual plot of NH, Europe and CET, smoothed in some way. For the SOI I and Tim reckon that it won't work showing this at interannual timescale with 3 plots. It will then not be like the NAO plot. Thoughts on colours as well. Have a good weekend. Logging off once this has gone. Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [2]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml References 1. http://www.ltrr.arizona.edu/~dmeko/notes_8.pdf 2. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml