From	Irina Fast	Date	Tue, 30 Sep 2003 14:24:57 +0200
To	Tim Osborn, Keith Briffa
Subject	COLD season T reconstruction
Hi Tim, hi Keith, attached you can find my reconstruction of the cold season temperature anomalies. I have retained the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th EOFs for the whole time span (1500-1976). It seems to be a rather strange choice, but if I retain the 1st and/or 2nd EOFs the reconstructed T anomalies for Northern Europe are too large in comparison to observed anomalies. You will see that calibration/verification skills are miserable. But it puts my mind to rest, if you say, that this is an expected result. Last week you wrote : >Please let us (me and Keith) know if you are happy with your implementation >of the Mann et al. method. I remember that you had some strange results >when you applied it to the model simulations - did you solve those >problems? We might be able to help or provide advice if you still have >problems with the method. The problems I mentioned at the meeting in France arose if I applied my implementation of the method to the INSTRUMENTAL data and I tried to explain this effect through the gaps in the data. In the meantime I was able to eliminate to some degree this problem through the use of other fortran compiler and numeric library. I will prepare an slide with assesment of the performance of the current method implementation for "perfect proxy data" (i.e. instrumental data as proxy data). And now some words to agenda 1) Antje Weisheimer will say initial greeting words and make all organisational announcments. 2) As you know, Ulrich take part in the analysis of the simulations performed with ECHO-G by GKSS group. I am not sure, but maybe he will also present his ideas for further (in framework of SO&P reasonable) simulations, that can be conducted by FUB. For the presentations both OHP and data projector are available. Best redards Irina -- ________________________________________________________ Irina Fast Freie Universität Berlin Institut für Meteorologie Carl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-10 D-12165 Berlin Germany phone: +49 (0)30 838 712 21 fax: +49 (0)30 838 711 60 e-mail: f14@zedat.fu-berlin.de Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\rectemp_October-March1.dat" Attachment Converted: "c:\documents and settings\tim osborn\my documents\eudora\attach\rectemp_regave_October-March1.dat"