From	Phil Jones	Date	Mon Feb 21 15:35:44 2005
To	Michael E. Mann
Subject	Fwd: Re: Canadians and the Millennium
Mike, FYI only - here is a reply from Francis. He's still onside, just stuck learning French. Cheers Phil X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.2.1.2 Date: Mon, 21 Feb 2005 07:14:34 -0800 To: Phil Jones From: Francis Zwiers Subject: Re: Canadians and the Millennium Cc: "francis.zwiers@ec.gc.ca" X-UEA-MailScanner-Information: Please contact the ISP for more information X-UEA-MailScanner: Found to be clean Hi Phil, At 02:29 21/02/2005, you wrote: Francis, Been away for the last week and off again tomorrow for the rest of this week. I was surprised to see comments from you in WSJ saying that McIntyre and McKittrick were likely right and the Mann reconstruction is wrong. I hope it is a case of misreporting ! Well, this isn't what I said, and its also not what is reported in the WJS article. The article quotes me as saying that the technique preferentially produces hockey sticks (actually, I *think* I said that it preferentially produces PC1s with hockey stick shapes, but that's a distinction that may have escaped the reporter - or I may have miss-spoken). In any case, this does not mean that the general form of the reconstruction (illustrating the unusual nature of the 20th century) is wrong - and I went to pains in the interview to also make that point. The nearest composite reconstruction to MM in the 15th century is MBH98. All the others have the 15th century cooler than MBH98. There is no way MM are right in the 15th century. Also Moberg et al (2005) has too much long-term variability. Sorry for the short email, I have loads of others to go through before the end of today. We can discuss in more detail at Duke ! Unfortunately, I won't be at Duke because I'm still stuck in a particular type of Canadian purgatory called french training. Cheers, Francis Cheers Phil Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ___________________________________________________________ Francis Zwiers, Chief Canadian Ctr for Climate Modelling and Analysis Meteorological Service of Canada c/o University of Victoria PO Box 1700, STN CSC Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2 Phone: (250)363-8229 Fax: (250)363-8247 Web: [1]http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- References 1. http://www.cccma.bc.ec.gc.ca/