From	Phil Jones	Date	Thu Mar 17 13:54:17 2005
To	Michael E. Mann, ray bradley
Subject	Re: BBC E-mail: New row on climate 'hockey stick'
Mike, On Horizon, I'm supposed to be called in a few minutes by someone. Not sure who yet. This program is generally good. They did something on global dimming a few months ago and now want to do something on the truth about global warming, IPCC and skeptics. That's all I know so far. Person's name is Paul Olding. Should be calling at 2pm, so 5 minutes time. Cheers Phil At 13:21 17/03/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: HI Phil, I agree-like all of these sources (e.g. boreholes, tree-rings, etc.) each one has its own potential weaknessses--in this case, I think cold-season precip could be playing a greater role w/ the mid-latitude glaciers than Oerlemans cares to admit. Not clear that should give a systematic bias towards underestimating temperature variations though, which is the argument you'd need to make if you're a boreholer. The important thing is that it is entirely independent of everything else that has come before, and looks remarkably like the Bradley and Jones/Mann et al/Jones et al/Crowley & Lowery/Mann & Jones type reconstructions. Somehow the word hasn't really gotten out on this. I've got a call in from a different BBC reporter today, Ben Dempsey, who seems much better. He's doing something for "Horizon" on climate change. Do you know anything about this? Thanks, mike At 08:02 AM 3/17/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Mike, Reporter was Paul Rincon ("Paul Rincon-NEWSi" ). No-one seems to have picked up on Oerleman's paper yet. You did send me that earlier, so I should have told him about that. Sarah Raper here has some doubts about Oerleman's work, but it does reproduce the curve very well. Need to be objective though in interpreting it. Cheers Phil At 12:48 17/03/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Hi Phil, Yes, BBC has been disappointing in the way they've dealt with this--almost seems to be a contrarian element there. Do you remember the name of the reporter you spoke to? Thanks, Mike p.s. Interesting that they also don't seem to be aware of the Oerleman's paper, which reproduces the "Hockey Stick" using completely independent data and method (glacial mass balance). I've attached in case you haven't seen... At 03:26 AM 3/17/2005, Phil Jones wrote: Ray, I tried to convince the reporter here there wasn't a story, but he went with it anyway. At least he put in a quote from me that there are loads of other series that show similar-ish series to MBH and MJ. Had to mention the Moberg et al series to achieve this. The reporter said he'd not seen Moberg et al., and it wasn't flagged up by Nature to them at the appropriate time. Odd ! Then why are you running with this GRL paper as there are 10s issued each week. Well, it turns out, not surprisingly, that MM have issued numerous press releases themselves - using their networks. Waterhouse is at Anglian Polytechnic Uni (APU) - it's in Cambridge and Chelmsford. Keith said what does John Waterhouse know about paleo - my thoughts also ! We've worked with John several years ago on an isotopes in trees project, that didn't produce much. APU is OK when it comes to counselling studies. Ruth works for them teaching at Yarmouth ! His quote is typical of many I get to here. Pity the reporter didn't mention this to me. My response would have been what is the point of doing any more paleo work, if we are constrained by the answer we are allowed to get. If we don't have the MWP and LIA then we are wrong. We have orders of magnitude more data than when these came into vogue in the 1960s, but we still are expected to find them. Cheers Phil Cheers Phil At 17:20 16/03/2005, you wrote: ray saw this story on BBC News Online and thought you should see it. ** Message ** Anglia Polytechnic?!!!! ** New row on climate 'hockey stick' ** New controversy has erupted over one of the most provocative symbols of the global warming debate: the so-called "hockey stick" graph. < [1]http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/4349133.stm > ** BBC Daily E-mail ** Choose the news and sport headlines you want - when you want them, all in one daily e-mail < [2]http://www.bbc.co.uk/dailyemail/ > ** Disclaimer ** The BBC is not responsible for the content of this e-mail, and anything said in this e-mail does not necessarily reflect the BBC's views. If you don't wish to receive such mails in the future, please e-mail webmasters@bbc.co.uk making sure you include the following text: I do not want to receive "E-mail a friend" mailings. Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [3]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- ______________________________________________________________ Professor Michael E. Mann Department of Environmental Sciences, Clark Hall University of Virginia Charlottesville, VA 22903 _______________________________________________________________________ e-mail: mann@virginia.edu Phone: (434) 924-7770 FAX: (434) 982-2137 [4]http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- References 1. http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/em/fr/-/2/hi/science/nature/4349133.stm 2. http://www.bbc.co.uk/dailyemail/ 3. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml 4. http://www.evsc.virginia.edu/faculty/people/mann.shtml