| From | Kevin Trenberth | Date | Wed, 20 Apr 2005 19:46:31 -0600 (MDT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| To | Martin Manning | ||
| CC | Phil Jones, Peter Lemke, Susan Solomon, IPCC-WG1, Keith Briffa | ||
| Subject | Re: WG1 LA2 meeting - Overlap cluster A | ||
| Martin I think you are right: the paleo instrumental issue is likely to involve mainly Briffa from Chap 6 and Phil from our chapter, so they might well spin off at some point. Are there others Phil? Kevin > Dear Kevin and Phil > > As you say Chapter 6 was not implicated in the cluster B overlap issues > based on the author notes we received with the ZOD. You may want to cover > the point raised by Phil and in particular where the long instrumental > records fit, but as this seems to involve only a small number of LAs you > could consider dealing with that more efficiently in a small group > separately from the cluster meeting. So the choice is up to you. > > If it would be helpful, the TSU could start to compile a list of small > group meetings requested by CLAs and look for some way of setting up a > practical timetable for lunch time meetings. But we would need advice on > the specific individuals who should be involved in each case and all I am > offering is a "dating service" that would distribute a suggested list of > times and names that we could possibly update in real time during the > meeting in Beijing. > > Regards > Martin > > At 09:07 AM 4/20/2005, Kevin Trenberth wrote: >>Hi Martin >>I agree with what Phil says, but I note that cluster B does not actually >>have chapter 6 as part of it. So the question is whether chapter 6 will >>be involved?. If so then we may well want to split into 2 parts. Last >>night I had a quick look at Chap 9 and I am concerned about redundancy >> and >>overlap and conflicts: they are doing some similar things with >>observations but maybe different obs, and coming to different conclusions >>e.g. wrt things like dimming. >>Kevin >> >>Phil Jones wrote: >>> >>> Dear All, >>> In addition to Kevin's comments and from a quickish look through >>> parts of Chapters >>> 4, 6 and 9, here are a few suggestions. >>> >>> First for best use of time, I would suggest that Cluster B gets >>> broken into two parts. >>> Basically separating off the overlap with the paleo and instrumental >>> record including >>> borehole temperatures and glacier length changes from the sea ice/SST, >>> snow/temperature. >>> OHC/SST, salinity/precip and SLR etc. The latter can be dealt with by >>> Chs 5, 3 and 4. >>> The former is really for 6, 3 and 4. >>> >>> Issues for 3 and 6 are the interface of the instrumental and paleo >>> records, particularly >>> how the early 19th century is dealt with. This period of instrumental >>> records is believed >>> by many in the paleo community not to exist, but in Europe and a few >>> other regions it >>> exists back in good order to the late 18th century. The 19th century >>> is, I believe, the key >>> to resolving much of the discussion about the millennium. Much more >>> should be made of >>> this period when comparisons with long forced GCM runs are analyzed. >>> Europe may be a >>> small continent, but the 200-250 year 'perfect proxy' records (which >>> have all seasons!) need >>> to be studied more. As any conclusions relate to Ch 6, the main text >>> should be there, with >>> perhaps a box on the early instrumental period in Ch 3. >>> >>> Somewhat related to the above, Ch 4 has a section on the recent >>> Oerlemans (2005) work >>> - attached for reference. Mike Mann sent me a figure (see jpg) >>> comparing this with most other >>> reconstructions of parts of the millennium. It seems that this piece >>> of >>> work should be with >>> all the others in Ch 6 and not Ch 4. When producing plots like this >>> getting the right base level >>> is crucial - not just for Oerlemans' series, but also for the >>> boreholes. Also, the degree of >>> smoothing and the y-scale used can easily determine the takeaway >>> message. >>> >>> Chapter 9 has an interest in both these issues. >>> >>> Finally, there is one other issue. Do we want to consider having a >>> web site (distributed?) where >>> the data for some selected time series can be downloaded from - not >>> just the smoothed/plotted >>> series, but on the original timescale as well. This possibly comes >>> back >>> also to a consistent way >>> of smoothing time series. >>> >>> Cheers >>> Phil >>> >>> >>>At 08:11 20/04/2005, Peter Lemke wrote: >>>>Dear Martin, >>>>I am also willing to co-chair the cluster B. (As always) Kevin has done >>>>a very good job in listing the most important issues. >>>>Therefore, I have nothing to add at the moment. I will think about this >>>>on the weekend. >>>>Best regards, >>>>Peter >>>> >>>>Kevin Trenberth schrieb: >>>> >>>>>Hi Martin >>>>> >>>>>Yes I will do this. >>>>> >>>>>Firstly on cluster A: >>>>>I/we have an issue which is: what about changes in radiative forcing >>>>>from water vapor (or feedback if you prefer), it is of order 1 W m-2. >>>>>So this relates to water vapor changes in chapter 3. >>>>> >>>>>Cluster B: Consistency in observed climate change: atmosphere, ocean, >>>>>cryosphere. This may also extend to paleo, chapter 6. >>>>>Issues: >>>>>*Consistency of:* >>>>> >>>>> * sea ice with SST >>>>> * snow cover with snowfall and temperature >>>>> * glacier melting and permafrost changes vs temperatures >>>>> * borehole temperatures, glacier changes and paleo record >>>>> * overlap between paleo record and instrumental record >>>>> * salinity vs precipitation >>>>> * ocean heat content with SST and surface fluxes >>>>> * sea level rise as an integrator: ocean expansion, melting of >>>>> land ice, increased water storage on land, and changes in TOA >>>>> radiation (presumably led by Chapter 5.) >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Issues consist of use of consistent temperature and precipitation >>>>>records (don't use NCEP surface temperatures as in Ch 4 CQ). >>>>> >>>>>Points of contention: >>>>>1) consistency >>>>>2) overlap and redundancy >>>>>3) where to place integrated assessment? >>>>> >>>>> * sea level: Chapter 5 >>>>> * snow, ice, temperature chapter 3 section 3.9 >>>>> * paleo record vs instrumental chapter 6 >>>>> * overall view including sea level chapter 3, in 3.9 >>>>> * T increase (land, SST, subsurface ocean), snow retreat, sea ice >>>>> retreat, thinning, freezing season shorter, glacier melt, sea >>>>> level rise. >>>>> * Precip changes, drought, salinity, ocean currents, P-E, >>>>> snowfall. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Please see the draft of 3.9. >>>>> >>>>>So in terms of the agenda, the main points are: >>>>>1) Ensuring consistency among variables across chapters >>>>>2) Agreement on which chapter and what person will handle what, and in >>>>>particular, that 3.9 will have a look ahead aspect to the chapters >>>>> that >>>>>follow. >>>>>The above points could all be briefly on the table with the focus on >>>>>cross-chapter issues. >>>>>Desirable to circulate draft section 3.9 (1 page). >>>>> >>>>>Peter may wish to add or change this? >>>>>Regards >>>>>Kevin >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>>Martin Manning wrote: >>>>> >>>>>>Dear Kevin and Peter >>>>>> >>>>>>Please find attached our current program for the second Lead Author >>>>>>meeting on May 10 - 12. We will shortly be sending out some more >>>>>>details on the plans for the meeting and in particular would like to >>>>>>clarify what needs to be done in the Overlap Cluster meetings shown >>>>>> in >>>>>>the program on Wednesday 11th. >>>>>> >>>>>>This is to ask if you would be prepared to jointly co-chair the >>>>>>session on Overlap Cluster B dealing with "Consistency in covering >>>>>>observed climate change" and which will involve discussion among >>>>>>chapters 3, 4, 5, 9 and 11. The attached program lists, on the last >>>>>>page, overlap / consistency areas that have been mentioned in the >>>>>> ZOD. >>>>>> >>>>>>We would really be most grateful for your assistance in this, and if >>>>>>you agree, we would like to ask that you each to specify what in your >>>>>>view would be the 2 or 3 most important issues to resolve during the >>>>>>overlap cluster session. We will then use your input to draw up a >>>>>>specific agenda and circulate agendas for all overlap clusters to all >>>>>>CLAs prior to the meeting. We hope in this way that we can reach a >>>>>>shared understanding of the most important overlap and consistency >>>>>>issues and the corresponding key decisions that will have to be made >>>>>>in Beijing. >>>>>> >>>>>>I would be grateful if you could let me know whether you are able to >>>>>>help us with this by Wednesday 20th. >>>>>>Regards >>>>>>Martin >>>>>> >>>>>>-- >>>>>>*Recommended Email address: >>>>>> >>>>>>*** Please note that problems may occur with my @noaa.gov address >>>>>>Dr Martin R Manning, Director, IPCC WG I Support Unit >>>>>>NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory Phone: +1 303 497 >>>>>> 4479 >>>>>>325 Broadway, DSRC R/AL8 Fax: +1 303 497 5628 >>>>>>Boulder, CO 80305, USA >>>>> >>>>>-- **************** >>>>>Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: >>>>> >>>>>Climate Analysis Section, >>>>>NCAR >>>>> >>>>>P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 >>>>>Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) >>>>> >>>>>Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 >>>> >>>>-- >>>>**************************************************** >>>>Prof. Dr. Peter Lemke >>>>Alfred-Wegener-Institute >>>>for Polar and Marine Research >>>>Postfach 120161 >>>>27515 Bremerhaven >>>>GERMANY >>>> >>>>e-mail: >>>>Phone: ++49 (0)471 - 4831 - 1751/1750 >>>>FAX: ++49 (0)471 - 4831 - 1797 >>>> >>>>**************************************************** >>> >>>Prof. Phil Jones >>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>>University of East Anglia >>>Norwich Email >>> >>>NR4 7TJ >>>UK >>>---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> >>> >>> >>>d85f1d.jpg >> >> >>-- >>**************** >>Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: >> >>Climate Analysis Section, >>NCAR >>P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 >>Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) >> >>Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80303 >> > > -- > Recommended Email address: mmanning@al.noaa.gov > ** Please note that problems may occur with my @noaa.gov address > Dr Martin R Manning, Director, IPCC WG I Support Unit > NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory Phone: +1 303 497 4479 > 325 Broadway, DSRC R/AL8 Fax: +1 303 497 5628 > Boulder, CO 80305, USA | |||