From	Keith Briffa	Date	Tue Nov 15 17:47:53 2005
To	Michael E. Mann, Tim Osborn
CC	Phil Jones
Subject	Re: heads up...
Mike thanks for this. When time allows we will do a response to this poster and simply post it on our web page. As others have said , the dating of the chronology in the Urals is not wrong - but the magnitude of the extreme years in the early Urals reconstruction were not adjusted to account for inflated variance related to low chronology replication - so they are sort of right that the emphasis on 1032 is probably overdone. Anyway thanks again Keith At 15:29 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: Thanks Tim, Phil yes, I never had any doubt he's wrong. In fact he's been wrong about just about every claim he's ever made. He almost had a point w/ the PCA centering, but as we all know, that doesn't matter at all in the end. The issue isn't whether or not he's right, as we all well know by now, but whether his false assertions have enough superficial plausability to get traction. In this case, they might, so probably good to at least be prepared. I was told by a journalist Paul Thacker that his poster got prominent placement, probably not an accident (see forwarded email). I believe that Mike Schlesinger and David Karoly were there in the same session, so might be worth checking w/ them. I think Connie Woodhouse and Tom Wigley were also at the meeting, but not sure... I suspect that this is the first in a line of attacks (I'm sure Tom C is next in line) that will ultimately get "published" one way or another. The GRL leak may have been plugged up now w/ new editorial leadership there, but these guys always have "Climate Research" and "Energy and Environment", and will go there if necessary. They are telegraphing quite clearly where they are going w/ all of this... Mike Tim Osborn wrote: Thanks for this Mike. We'd spotted an earlier draft of his poster and were a bit concerned about this receiving prominence at the meeting. Did it arouse much discussion, do you know? Keith and Tom Melvin looked into the dating a while back when McIntyre first raised it and were quite satisfied with the published dating I think. Not sure what should be done - unless he submits something for peer-review. Cheers, Tim At 14:53 15/11/2005, Michael E. Mann wrote: not sure if you guys are aware, McIntyre presented this poster at the CCSP meeting. Apparently, they gave him a very prominent location, so that everyone entering the meeting would have seen the poster... mike can find at: <[1]http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm>http://www.climatesc ience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm P-GC1.4 More on Hockey Sticks: The Case of Jones et al. [1998] Stephen McIntyre, <[2]mailto:stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca>stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca Multiproxy studies purporting to show 20th century uniqueness have been applied by policymakers, but they have received remarkably little independent critical analysis. Jones et al. [1998] is a prominent multi-proxy study used by IPCC [2001] and others to affirm the hockey stick shaped temperature reconstruction of Mann et al. [1998]. However, the reconstruction of Jones et al. [1998] is based on only 3-4 proxies in the controversial Medieval Warm Period, including non-arms-length studies by Briffa et al. [1992] and Briffa et al [1995]. We show that the Polar Urals data set in Briffa et al [1992] fails to meet a variety of quality control standards, both in replication and crossdating. The conclusion of Briffa et al. [1995] that 1032 was the "coldest year" of the millennium proves to be based on inadequate replication of only 3 tree ring cores, of which at least 2 are almost certainly incorrectly crossdated. We show that an ad hoc adjustment to the Tornetrask data set in Briffa et al [1992] cannot be justified. The individual and combined impact of defects in the Polar Urals data set and Tornetrask adjustments on the reconstruction of Jones et al [1998] is substantial and can be seen to have the effect of modifying what would otherwise indicate a pronounced Medieval Warm Period in the proxy reconstruction. Inhomogeneity problems in the Polar Urals and Tornetrask data sets, pertaining to altitude, minimum girth bias and pith centering bias will also be discussed. -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: <[3]mailto:mann@psu.edu>mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 <[4]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm>[5]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/ mann.htm Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 [8]http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [9]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ References 1. http://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm%3Ehttp://www.climatescience.gov/workshop2005/abstracts/p-gc-1.htm 2. mailto:stephen.mcintyre@utoronto.ca 3. mailto:mann@psu.edu%3Emann@psu.edu 4. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 5. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 6. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ 7. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 8. http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm 9. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/