From	Keith Briffa	Date	Wed, 21 Dec 2005 15:43:11 +0000
To	Tim Osborn
Subject	Fwd: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch
>Date: Sun, 18 Dec 2005 13:53:03 -0700 >To: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >From: Jonathan Overpeck >X-Virus-Scanned: amavisd-new at ucar.edu >Subject: [Wg1-ar4-ch06] Follow-up from Christchurch >X-BeenThere: wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >X-Mailman-Version: 2.1.1 >List-Id: >List-Help: >List-Post: >List-Subscribe: , > >List-Archive: >List-Unsubscribe: , > >Sender: wg1-ar4-ch06-bounces@joss.ucar.edu >X-UEA-Spam-Score: 0.0 >X-UEA-Spam-Level: / >X-UEA-Spam-Flag: NO > >Hi Chapter 6 Friends - Just wanted to thank you all for a great IPCC >meeting and solid progress toward the SOD of Chapter 6, as well as >give you a report on the TS meeting that took place on Friday. I'm >in transit, so haven't been able to see any emails, but I suspect >Eystein is also sending some updates on what we need to be doing. >We'll have to work fast and hard to make all the deadlines, but I >think its safe to say that our chapter will have real impact. I want >to personally thank you for your dedication to our team effort! > >PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING CAREFULLY > >The TS/SPM meeting on Friday was exhausting, as appears to be >traditional for all things IPCC. But, it was quite impressive in >terms of how paleo was viewed by the broader WG1 team of authors. >This is reflected in the decision to consider (without any pushing >from me, believe it or not) several new figures from our chapter. >Below I list these along with the others that will need refinement >for use by the TS. Please note where I insert "ACTION ITEM" - these >are very time sensitive assignments that should be carried out ASAP >(i.e., before the new year where possible). Note that everything >(i.e., figures) in the TS will also have to be in our chapter. > >1) the orbital box. Eystein and I have the draft completed by >Valerie et al in New Zealand. We will read/edit (ACTION ITEM) and >send around to the group for further editing. The TS version might >have to be altered to reflect the broader audience, and I'm not yet >sure what figure would best go with the TS version. I believe >Valerie (ACTION ITEM) is exploring (with Stefan?) a nice figure that >illustrates the mechanisms of orbital forcing. > >2) there will also be an model evaluation box in the TS that will >have paleo. Once I get more feedback on this (Chap 8 is leading on >this box), I'll connect the rest of our team with this effort, with >Bette in the role of lead chap 6 person. > >3) there will a sea level box led by Chap 5. I'm not sure what the >fig will look like in this box, but if Dick (ACTION ITEM) can >produce his new Chap 6 sea level figure FAST, we can float it as a >possible contributor to the TS Box figure. It would be great to get >paleo sea level perspectives in this box! > >4) there will be expanded discussion of abrupt change with focus on >paleo - Richard Alley is leading this, and I think that will be a >real plus in making sure the discussion isn't just model based > >4) Keith's sites through time figure is also still a TS item. There >will hopefully also be a fig showing the distribution of >instrumental sites. Keith has the ACTION ITEM on his figure. Peck >and Eystein can help get the data released to Keith and Tim if >needed - just let us know. > >5) Keith's 6.8 figure will have to be worked on to find the best >mode of presentation, and I have a separate email on this one for >him and Tim. The TS team would like to see inserted on the fig >(e.g., along the lower edge of the figure, perhaps) some depiction >of how the site number used changes back in time, and some color >coding to denote how our expert judgement suggests the implied >confidence in the recons change back in time. I'm guessing this will >require some phone conversations to think through with Keith (ACTION >ITEM for Eystein, Peck and Keith). > >6) A NEW FIGURE - depicting inferred solar forcing over the last X >centuries. The request is that we show Judith Lean et al's latest >for 1600 to present. This could include the volcanic forcing too, >but it seems more appropriate that we stick with our plan to add >this to the expanded 6.8. We'll have to try both figs (this new one, >and the expanded 6.8) figure w/ and w/o the volcanic series (i.e., >detrended multi-core average excess sulfate from each of two polar >regions) on each fig. I think Keith/Tim gets the ACTION ITEM on all >this figure stuff - Perhaps David (ACTION ITEM) can send Judith's >latest solar recon to Keith? > >7) Expanded/modified recent forcing figureS by Fortunat (ACTION >ITEM). One will be for Chap 6, the other will combine Chap 2 and 6 >perspectives into a single figure for the TS. I'll send a separate >fig to Fortunat with the details, but everyone likes his new rate of >change depiction, and the TS team also wants a ice core tropospheric >aerosol record too (e.g., for the last couple centuries - Jean >Jouzel thought we could do this using Greenland ice core data, and >we'd add this to the TS fig (and either a chap 2 or 6 figure, since >everyting in the TS has to also be in a chapter. > >8) A NEW FIGURE for the TS (and maybe not chapt 6, since we already >have 6.8 and 6.10 with most of the info) should be the one of >Keith's that we showed in our plenary talk on Thursday - the >multi-model range of simulated change over the last 1000 (red >shading) superimposed on our chap 6 observed record (represented by >grey shading as in the fig we showed). Requested modifications for >Keith/Tim (ACTION ITEM) include: a) using a 20th century ref period >as in the current Fig 6.8, b) adding (where possible) simulations >that include natural forcing only (and thus not enough warming in >20th century) and c) adding one or more EMIC simulations using the >new Lean solar recon (at least over the last 400 years, with all the >other forcing). This last one is tricky, since no one at the TS mtg >thought such a simulation exists, BUT it seems it is ok for us to >get/use a new long simulation by one of the EMIC models used in Chap >10. Peck (ACTION ITEM) needs to figure out how to get this, but >Thomas Stocker indicated he'd help. Stafan - what about you guys >doing this? Who else could we ask for fast turnaround? > >9) Another NEW FIGURE (that I actually fought including since we >don't want to be seen showing off our own stuff) of Last >Interglacial (LIG) Change. The TS team (and Susan) really liked this >paleo message, so we came up with a proposed scheme (which I already >discussed with Bette - who has the ACTION ITEM) that will involve >the inclusion of more than one LIG climate simulation, plotted with >observations superimposed, and perhaps more than one LIG ice sheet >reconstruction as well. Should Tarasov and Peltier be considered for >this fig (forced by ice-core inferred LIG climate)? Are there >others? For this figure to work, it has to be a synthesis of >multiple studies, not just the recent Otto-Bleisner et al effort. > >So, that is the news - all good from the view point of chap 6 >exposure/impact, but of course, not so good in terms of the >additional fast-turn-around work that is needed. The other tough >issue is that - after several negotiating sessions with Susan (the >last one with Jean Jouzel helping) - the best we could do is get our >page limit increased from 30 to 35 pages. That doesn't sound too >bad, except that we have to a) get all our existing material into >less space than now (we're currently at an estimated 36 pages) AND >b) get the new figures mentioned above in (two I think - solar, plus >the LIG fig). We can do it, but everyone has to be thinking NOW >about how to reduce our text. > >Again, many thanks for all the travel and hard work over the last >two weeks. Also (in advance) for all the hard work coming up this >month and the next two. > >Best, Peck >-- >Jonathan T. Overpeck >Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >Professor, Department of Geosciences >Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences > >Mail and Fedex Address: > >Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >University of Arizona >Tucson, AZ 85721 >direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >fax: +1 520 792-8795 >http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >_______________________________________________ >Wg1-ar4-ch06 mailing list >Wg1-ar4-ch06@joss.ucar.edu >http://www.joss.ucar.edu/mailman/listinfo/wg1-ar4-ch06 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/