From	Keith Briffa	Date	Fri Feb 3 17:45:52 2006
To	Eystein Jansen
Subject	Re: Fwd: new fig
Eystein can you also check that Fortunat is addressing the few comments (ie revising the text) that relate to his bit of my section and Henry Pollack is helping us to asses the comments and revise the text to do with the Ground Surface Temperature section. I presume Ricardo and Peck are dealing with all the regional stuff. Thanks At 17:32 03/02/2006, you wrote: Hi, I can contact Oerlemans, have met him a few times. Cheers, Eystein thanks for this - the new runs I think best in a separate panel . Keith At 16:44 03/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: Hi Keith and Tim (and Eystein): Your new figure is quite compelling, and a nice complement to the other two panels. I agree it would be good to get the Northern Hem Oerleman's plot - Eystein do you know him well enough to ask? (I never even met him, but could ask if you don't know him). What you have created will take some good work on the caption to explain, but it has my vote. What is your plan for dealing with the new German/Swiss model results? A new figure? Are you sure these runs can't be worked in, perhaps as a new panel? At least we have Susan's support for the new runs, so we do what we have to do. As for work and time, we are running out. Just do the best you can, and hopefully the new section will emerge sometime next week. Highest priority (please do first) - we need 3 TS-contender figures (and captions) by early next week: 1) the new fig showing all the sites used in the recons - with caption 2) the fig you've attached to this email - with caption (were we going to try to put all the model runs/refs/color key into a table, so the caption could be shorter than in the FOD? Think this would be better, so caption is shorter) 3) the new fig comparing the obs to the model runs (update of the fig we showed for first time in ChCh - using a version of the lower panel you attached to this email - with caption There is little doubt you guys have the hardest job of all LAs in our chapter, and possibly the entire WG1 report. Your work will have huge impact, and the extra effort is really appreciated well beyond me and Eystein. I wish we could offer up a time machine to make it easier, but... just keep plugging. thanks! Peck Peck and Eystein we are having trouble to express the real message of the reconstructions - being scientifically sound in representing uncertainty , while still getting the crux of the information across clearly. It is not right to ignore uncertainty, but expressing this merely in an arbitrary way (and as a total range as before) allows the uncertainty to swamp the magnitude of the changes through time . We have settled on this version (attached) of the Figure which we hoe you will agree gets the message over but with the rigor required for such an important document. We have added a box to show the "probability surface" for the most likely estimate of past temperatures based on all published data. By overlapping all reconstructions and giving a score of 2 to all areas within the 1 standard error range of the estimates for each reconstruction , and a score of 1 for the area between 1 and 2 standard errors, you build up a composite picture of the most likely or "concensus" path that temperatures took over the last 1200 years (note - now with a linear time axis). This still shows the outlier ranges , preserving all the information, but you see the central most likely area well , and the comparison of past and recent temperature levels is not as influenced by the outlier estimates. What do you think? We have experimented with different versions of the shading and this one shows up quite well - but we may have to use some all grey version as the background to the overlay of the model results. We have also experimented with changing the normalisation base for the model/reconstruction Figure , but using the same short modern period as for the first Figure is not satisfactory - more on this later. We have added in Oerlemans curve as many insisted - but we only have the GLOBAL curve - can you get the separate North and Southern Hemisphere curves (with uncertainty) . I do not see that the new model runs from Germany/Switzerland will fit easily in the existing Figure and need to be separate! I am really struggling with the text also - really need more time!!!! More later Keith X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 7.0.0.16 Date: Fri, 03 Feb 2006 10:42:15 +0000 To: Keith Briffa From: Tim Osborn Subject: new fig Dr Timothy J Osborn Climatic Research Unit School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk phone: +44 1603 592089 fax: +44 1603 507784 web: [1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ sunclock: [2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [3]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:ipcc_nhrecon_new1.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0010B41B) -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 [4]http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ [5]http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [6]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- ______________________________________________________________ Eystein Jansen Professor/Director Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research and Dep. of Earth Science, Univ. of Bergen Allégaten 55 N-5007 Bergen NORWAY e-mail: eystein.jansen@geo.uib.no Phone: +47-55-583491 - Home: +47-55-910661 Fax: +47-55-584330 -- Professor Keith Briffa, Climatic Research Unit University of East Anglia Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. Phone: +44-1603-593909 Fax: +44-1603-507784 [7]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ References 1. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ 2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm 3. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 4. http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ 5. http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ 6. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ 7. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/