From	Fortunat Joos	Date	Wed, 15 Feb 2006 08:25:27 +0100
To	Jonathan T. Overpeck
CC	Tim Osborn, Stefan Rahmstorf, Anders Levermann, Eva Bauer, Gian-Kasper Plattner, Eystein Jansen, Keith Briffa, Øyvind Paasche
Subject	Re: Fwd: Re: Millennium Simulations
O.k. EMIC caption noted. Can go with the 1500-1899 ref period. Stefan, Anders, and Eva can you provide me the appropriate references for your models and the official names. Regards, Fortunat Jonathan Overpeck wrote: > Hi Tim and Fortunat: This looks nice (thanks) and my slight bias is that > we should include the Climber3a results. What do you think, Fortunat? I > think Stefan likes it based on his email. > > Regarding the reference period, I would side w/ Tim and Keith on using > 1500-1899. We need to use the same ref period for everything on these > two figs (obs and forcing/simulations), and I think the EMIC panel still > convey's the main message. Keith/Tim/Fortunat - we have to resolve this > FAST, so please weigh in more on this issue. Thanks. > > Regarding captions, yes, you should do all but the EMICS, and you should > make sure you send to Stefan so he can help make sure it makes sense > (e.g., the red/grey shading). We have asked Fortunat to do the EMIC > caption. Can you do this Fortunat? Thanks. > > Best, Peck > > > > >> Dear all, >> >> please see the attached diagram (both the same, PDF or GIF) with all >> three EMICs on now. Climber3a seems to lie between Climber2 and >> Bern2.5CC mostly. Does it add to the message of the figure to use all >> three? If so, please use this version from now on, for drafting >> captions etc. >> >> Nobody said much about the previous version, so hopefully this >> indicates general agreement! I didn't show the "Bard08" runs, because >> they were so close to the runs I have labelled "WLS", but of course in >> those runs the pre-1610 solar forcing is Bard08 - so maybe the labels >> should be altered to somehow indicate them, or this could just be >> stated in the caption. >> >> Am I right that Keith and I need to provide an updated caption for >> panels (a)-(d), but that someone else will write a caption for the >> EMIC panel (e)? >> >> Cheers >> >> Tim >> >> At 19:20 13/02/2006, Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >> >>> Hi Anders and Tim - It could be too late, but this is up to Tim. Can >>> you get these data onto the new EMIC panel? I think it'd be worth >>> it, but only if you and Keith can get everything else done first. >>> Best make sure you have all the data needed, just in case. >>> >>> thanks Anders too. >>> >>> best, peck >>> >>>> X-Sieve: CMU Sieve 2.2 >>>> Date: Mon, 13 Feb 2006 11:20:14 +0100 >>>> From: Anders Levermann >>>> Organization: PIK >>>> X-Accept-Language: en-us, en >>>> To: Fortunat Joos >>>> Cc: Jonathan Overpeck , >>>> Stefan Rahmstorf , >>>> Anders Levermann , >>>> Eva Bauer , >>>> plattner@climate.unibe.ch, >>>> Eystein Jansen , >>>> Keith Briffa >>>> Subject: Re: Millennium Simulations >>>> >>>> Dear all, >>>> >>>> here is the data from the Climber-3alpha simulations. I know they >>>> are too late, but >>>> perhaps there is still a way to include them. The structure of the >>>> files is the >>>> same as Eva's. The file names correspond to the ones you gave in the >>>> simulation >>>> protocol. >>>> >>>> Cheers, >>>> Anders >>>> >>>> Fortunat Joos wrote: >>>> >>>>> Dear all, >>>>> >>>>> Please find attached an update of the simulation protocol and input >>>>> data description. >>>>> >>>>> Kasper Plattner pointed out that I forgot the obvious. We need of >>>>> course a control run to correct for potential model drift. The >>>>> readme file has been modified accordingly adding a brief >>>>> description on how the control should be done. >>>>> >>>>> I am looking forward to any additional comments. Hope everything is >>>>> clear. >>>>> >>>>> Kasper is currently working to perform the simulation with the >>>>> Bern2.5CC. >>>>> >>>>> Regards, Fortunat >>>>> >>>>> Fortunat Joos wrote: >>>>> >>>>>> Dear all, >>>>>> >>>>>> I have now compiled the input data set and written a protocol how >>>>>> to perform the runs. It seems to me that it would make sense if we >>>>>> perform the simulations first with the Bern Model and with the >>>>>> Climber 2 model. We can then still decide if we need Climber 3. >>>>>> >>>>>> Please let me know if there are any questions. >>>>>> >>>>>> I could also provide files where the radiative forcing of solar, >>>>>> volcanoes and non-CO2-anthropogenic has been added together. >>>>>> >>>>>> With best wishes, >>>>>> >>>>>> Fortunat >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> >>>>>> Jonathan Overpeck wrote: >>>>>> >>>>>>> Dear Eva and Fortunat - thanks for working on getting things >>>>>>> moving. It seems that the detailed forcing recommendations laid >>>>>>> out below by Fortunat build nicely on what Eva first suggested, >>>>>>> and that going with the forcing series suggested below by >>>>>>> Foortunat (and the 6 simulations) is going to be just right for >>>>>>> the IPCC AR4 Chap 6 needs. Does everyone agree? >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Thanks Fortunat for preparing/sharing the standard forcing series. >>>>>>> >>>>>>> Best, peck >>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Dear Eva, >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> We are working on the forcing series and they should be ready by >>>>>>>> the end of the week. Stefan assured us that you can run this >>>>>>>> within a few hours. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> What we are preparing are the following series of radiative >>>>>>>> forcing in W/m2: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> a) RF from atmospheric constituents (well-mixed GHGs (CO2, CH4, >>>>>>>> N2O, many Halocarbons) tropo and strato Ozone, various >>>>>>>> anthropogenic aerosols) as used in the Bern CC TAR version and >>>>>>>> the TAR (see Joos et al., GBC, 2001; pdf is on my homepage and >>>>>>>> TAR appendix). >>>>>>>> b) volcanic from Crowley, Sci, 2000 >>>>>>>> c) solar based on Lean and Bard et al. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> For the solar we will prepare 3 combinations: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> c1) original serie from Lean (2005) provided to you already >>>>>>>> c2) Bard et al., Be-10 record linearly scaled to match the >>>>>>>> Maunder Minimum Average of Lean-AR4 >>>>>>>> c3) Bard et al., Be-10 scaled to a MM reduction of 0.25 permil, >>>>>>>> i.e. the low case in the Bard et, Tellus, publication >>>>>>>> corresponding to the Lean et al, 1995 scaling >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> For the RF by atmospheric components two cases are foreseen: >>>>>>>> a1) standard case with reconstructed evolution over past 1150 years >>>>>>>> a2) RF kept at 1765 value after 1765, i.e. a simulation with >>>>>>>> natural forcings only. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> This will yield in total 6 simulations 3 over the full length >>>>>>>> from 850 AD to 2000 and 3 brach-off simulatons from 1765 with >>>>>>>> natural only forcing. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> An important point in IPCC is that things are published, >>>>>>>> consistent among chapters, and it helps if approaches are >>>>>>>> tracable to earlier accepted and approved IPCC work. The >>>>>>>> arguments for these series are as follows: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> a) Considering as many components relevant for RF as possible >>>>>>>> (more than just CO2). The series are fully compatible with TAR >>>>>>>> and that the setup is tracable to the TAR for the industrial era >>>>>>>> increase. The same series will be used in the projection chapter >>>>>>>> 10 for the SRES calculation >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> b) volcanic: a widely cited record >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> c) solar: c1) and c3) are published series; c2 follows the same >>>>>>>> approach and spirit as used to derive c3, i.e. scaling the Be-10 >>>>>>>> serie linearly with a given Maunder Minimum reduction. The >>>>>>>> impact of the 11-yr solar cycle can be looked at in the original >>>>>>>> Lean-AR4 serie. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> I hope this help. >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> With kind regards, >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Fortunat >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Eva Bauer wrote: >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Dear Jonathan, dear Fortunat: >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Happy New Year! >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Stefan, Anders and me just have discussed how to set up our >>>>>>>>> CLIMBER2/3alpha runs, to produce something useful for the IPCC WGI >>>>>>>>> chapter 6. This chapter appears to touch the impact on the NH >>>>>>>>> temperature related to low and high solar forcing. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> For a reasonable comparison, we think two 1000-year simulations >>>>>>>>> differing only by a low and a high solar forcing, conducted >>>>>>>>> with both >>>>>>>>> CLIMBER models, would be ideal. To do so, we would have to >>>>>>>>> extend the >>>>>>>>> solar forcing time series based on Lean (GRL, 2000) and on Wang et >>>>>>>>> al. (2005) distributed in previous e-mails back to the year >>>>>>>>> 1000. This >>>>>>>>> would require some splicing as was done, for instance, by Crowley. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> I'm thinking of some scaling applied to a series of Crowley >>>>>>>>> (say the >>>>>>>>> data called Be10/Lean splice in Science, 2000) such that the >>>>>>>>> amplitude >>>>>>>>> of the solar variability from the 11-year cycle is conserved after >>>>>>>>> ~1720. I have to check but it appears that the variation in the >>>>>>>>> TSI >>>>>>>>> due to the 11-year cycle contained in the Crowley series agrees >>>>>>>>> perfectly with the 11yr-cycle data in the file based on Lean >>>>>>>>> (2000). >>>>>>>>> Before starting such an exercise I like to ask you what you think >>>>>>>>> about. We would be happy to receive your response quite soon to be >>>>>>>>> able to finish the calculations with our slow model in time for >>>>>>>>> the >>>>>>>>> IPCC report. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Could you please also comment on the other forcings we should >>>>>>>>> include, >>>>>>>>> namely the volcanic forcing and the CO2 forcing. For the >>>>>>>>> present study >>>>>>>>> we suggest to use the forcing as in Bauer et al (2000) but >>>>>>>>> omitting >>>>>>>>> the land-use. This means, using the volcanic forcing from Crowley, >>>>>>>>> 2000 and the CO2 forcing based on Etheridge et al 1996 and >>>>>>>>> Keeling and >>>>>>>>> Whorf, 1996. (If you wish we can distribute these data series.) >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Also, thinking beyond the IPCC study, the model results may become >>>>>>>>> interesting enough to be discussed in a 3-model comparison study!? >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Looking forward to your reply. >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Best wishes >>>>>>>>> >>>>>>>>> Eva >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> -- >>>>>>>> >>>>>>>> Climate and Environmental Physics, >>>>>>>> Physics Institute, University of Bern >>>>>>>> Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern >>>>>>>> Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 >>>>>>>> Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/ >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ------------------------------------------------------------------------ >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> Last Millennium Simulations for IPCC AR4 WG1 Chap 6 >>>>> --------------------------------------------------- >>>>> >>>>> F. Joos, >>>>> joos@climate.unibe.ch >>>>> 18 Januar 2006 >>>>> >>>>> OVERVIEW >>>>> -------- >>>>> >>>>> A total of 7 simulations is planned. >>>>> A control simulation without any forcing >>>>> >>>>> Two millennium-long simulations with solar forcing following Bard >>>>> et al. with a Maunder Minimum reduction of 0.08 and 0.25 percent in >>>>> total irradiance and volcanic and anthropogenic forcing included >>>>> A simulation from 1610 to 1998 with solar forcing from Wang et al, >>>>> 2005 and volcanic and anthropogenic forcing included >>>>> >>>>> Three simulations from 1765 to 1998 with only solar and volcanic >>>>> forcing included, but no anthropogenic forcings. These are branches >>>>> from the above three simulation. >>>>> >>>>> A range of input data files have been prepeared. Each contains a >>>>> header with additional descriptions of the data. >>>>> Solar irradiance has been taken from Bard et al., Tellus, 1999 and >>>>> from Wang, Lean, Shirley, JAp, 2005. >>>>> >>>>> It is estimated that the Maunder Minimum irradiance is reduce by >>>>> 0.08 percent >>>>> relative to today and that the present irradiance is 1366 W/m2 from >>>>> the Wang et al. data. >>>>> >>>>> A case with a Maunder Minimum reduction of 0.08 percent is >>>>> calculated from the Bard et al. data by scaling the original Bard >>>>> series appropriately. >>>>> The original Bard series are offset by 1.3 W/m2 in irradiance to >>>>> bring them to a present irradiance of 1366 W/m2. For this excercise >>>>> we will utilize a Maunder >>>>> Minimum reduction in irradiance relative to today of 0.08 percent >>>>> and of 0.25 percent (other cases with high MM reduction are >>>>> included in the files). >>>>> >>>>> Irradiance has been converted to radiative forcing: RF= >>>>> (IRR-1366)/4*0.7 >>>>> Volcanic forcing is from Crowley Science, 2000, with albedo >>>>> factored in (e.g. as for solar forcing). To avoid a cold start of >>>>> the model, the serie is extended to 850 AD by mirroring the Crowley >>>>> data from 1001 to 1150 to the period 850 to 1000. >>>>> NonCO2 forcing is following TAR (updated for an error in tropo O3 >>>>> in the TAR). >>>>> CO2 is a spline through the Etheridge, JGR, 97 data and the >>>>> Siegenthaler, TEllus, 2005 data. >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> INPUT FILES DESCRIPTION: >>>>> ----------------------- >>>>> >>>>> It is recommended to linearly interpolate between data points. >>>>> >>>>> A1: Solar irradiance and radiative forcing following Bard from 850 >>>>> to 2000 >>>>> (Tag description) >>>>> solBard08 2. col: Maunder Minimum reduction of 0.08 percent >>>>> solBard25 3. col: Maunder Minimu reduction of 0.25 percent >>>>> >>>>> Note: data from Bard have been linearlz interplated on an annual >>>>> time step >>>>> files: >>>>> bard00tel_solar_RF_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out >>>>> bard00tel_solar_irradiance_offset-13_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> A2: Solar irradiance and radiative forcing following Wang, Lean, >>>>> Shirley, 2005 >>>>> from 1610 to 2004 annual resolution >>>>> Tag: WLS-05 >>>>> >>>>> files: >>>>> wang05jastr_lean_RF_IPCC_chap6_Joos_11jan06.out >>>>> wang05jastr_lean_irradiance_IPCC_chap6_Joos_11jan06.out >>>>> >>>>> A3: CO2 concentration in ppm from 850 to 2000 >>>>> >>>>> annual resolution >>>>> Tag: CO2 >>>>> file: co2_850-2000_splined_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out >>>>> >>>>> A4: volcanic forcing after Crowley from 1001 to 1998 AD, extended >>>>> by artificial >>>>> data from 850 to 1000 AD by mirroring the forcing from 1000 to >>>>> 1150 to the period 850 to 1000 >>>>> Tag: volcCrow >>>>> >>>>> annual resolution >>>>> file: crowley00sci_RFvolcanic_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan05.out >>>>> >>>>> A5: radiative forcing by non-CO2 agents >>>>> annual resolution >>>>> Tag: nonco2 >>>>> >>>>> files >>>>> rf_nonco2_1yr_1765_2000_individ_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out >>>>> rf_nonco2_1yr_850_2000_IPCC_Chap6_Joos_11jan06.out >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> B) SIMULATIONS >>>>> ----------------------- >>>>> >>>>> B1. 2 Long simulations from 850 AD to 1998 >>>>> >>>>> ------- >>>>> >>>>> Simulation B1.1. tag: bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_850-1998 >>>>> >>>>> Solar forcing from Bard et al. with MM reduction of 0.08 percent, >>>>> volcanic forcing and forcing from CO2 and other anthropogenic >>>>> (non-CO2) agents. >>>>> >>>>> Start of simulation 850 AD >>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD >>>>> initial condition: model spinup for year 850 (or similiar) >>>>> >>>>> Analysis period: 1001 AD to 1998 AD >>>>> start-up period: 850 to 1000 with artificial volcanic data >>>>> >>>>> -------- >>>>> >>>>> Simulation B1.2 tag: bard25_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_850-1998 >>>>> >>>>> as B1.1 but with solar forcing from Bard et al. reduced by 0.25 >>>>> percent for the Maunder Minimum. >>>>> >>>>> Start of simulation 850 AD >>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD >>>>> initial condition: model spinup for year 850 (or similiar) >>>>> >>>>> Analysis period: 1001 AD to 1998 AD >>>>> start-up period: 850 to 1000 with artificial volcanic data >>>>> >>>>> -------- >>>>> >>>>> Simulation B2: A simulation from 1610 to 1998 restarted from >>>>> bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2 >>>>> >>>>> With solar forcing from Wang et al., 2005, volcanic forci >>>>> ng and forcing from CO2 and other anthropogenic (non-CO2) agents. >>>>> >>>>> B2 tag: WLS-2005_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2_1610-1998 >>>>> >>>>> Start of simulation: 1610 AD >>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD >>>>> initial condition: restart from simulation B1.1. >>>>> bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2 >>>>> at year 1610 >>>>> >>>>> Analysis period: 1610 AD to 1998 AD >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> ------- >>>>> >>>>> B3: 3 Simulations from 1765 to 1998 with natural forcing only >>>>> >>>>> non-CO2 radiative forcing is kept to zero (except >>>>> for volcanoes and solar) >>>>> >>>>> CO2 is kept at its 1765 value. >>>>> >>>>> Simulation B3.1: tag bard08_volcCrow_1765_1998 >>>>> >>>>> Start of simulation: 1765 AD >>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD >>>>> initial condition: restart from simulation B1.1. >>>>> bard08_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2 >>>>> at year 1765 >>>>> >>>>> Analysis period: 1765 to 1998 AD >>>>> >>>>> ------- >>>>> >>>>> Simulation B3.2: tag bard25_volcCrow_1765_1998 >>>>> >>>>> Start of simulation: 1765 AD >>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD >>>>> initial condition: restart from simulation B1.2. >>>>> bard25_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2 >>>>> at year 1765 >>>>> >>>>> Analysis period: 1765 to 1998 AD >>>>> >>>>> ----- >>>>> >>>>> Simulation B3.1: tag WLS-2005_volcCrow_1765_1998 >>>>> >>>>> Start of simulation: 1765 AD >>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD >>>>> initial condition: restart from simulation B2. >>>>> WLS-2005_volcCrow_CO2_nonCO2 >>>>> at year 1765 >>>>> >>>>> Analysis period: 1765 to 1998 AD >>>>> >>>>> ------- >>>>> >>>>> Simulation B4: tag ctrl_850-1998 >>>>> >>>>> Control simulation without any forcing >>>>> >>>>> Start of simulation 850 AD >>>>> End of simulation: 1998 AD >>>>> initial condition: model spinup for year 850 (or similiar) >>>>> >>>>> Analysis period: 850 to 1998 >>>>> >>>>> >>>>> OUTPUT >>>>> ------ >>>>> >>>>> I guess minimal output is global and NH mean surface temperature. >>>> >>>> >>>> -- >>>> Anders Levermann >>>> phone: +49-331-288-2560 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research >>>> fax: +49-331-288-2570 Telegraphenberg A26, 14473 Potsdam, Germany >>>> anders.levermann@pik-potsdam.de www.pik-potsdam.de/~anders >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> >>> >>> >>> -- >>> Jonathan T. Overpeck >>> Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>> Professor, Department of Geosciences >>> Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >>> >>> Mail and Fedex Address: >>> >>> Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>> 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>> University of Arizona >>> Tucson, AZ 85721 >>> direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>> fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>> http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>> http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ >>> >>> >>> >>> >>> >> >> >> Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:modelsE.gif (GIFf/«IC») (00113719) >> Attachment converted: Macintosh HD:modelsE.pdf (PDF /«IC») (0011371A) >> Dr Timothy J Osborn >> Climatic Research Unit >> School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia >> Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK >> >> e-mail: t.osborn@uea.ac.uk >> phone: +44 1603 592089 >> fax: +44 1603 507784 >> web: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/ >> sunclock: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timo/sunclock.htm > > > -- Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern Sidlerstr. 5, CH-3012 Bern Phone: ++41(0)31 631 44 61 Fax: ++41(0)31 631 87 42 Internet: http://www.climate.unibe.ch/~joos/