From	Jonathan T. Overpeck	Date	Fri, 3 Mar 2006 10:07:17 -0700
To	Keith Briffa
CC	Eystein Jansen
Subject	Re: photographs and other visuals for Science
Hi Keith - thanks. Plan sounds good, and I will use this email to start the "do for next draft" file. Thanks, peck >Peck > >we do need to say something , but as I said in an earlier message , >not without more consideration. We should not write something curt >on this - ditto the Co2 possible fertilisation . In the push to do >all this other stuff , we have had to leave it - to discuss later >how to include an uncertainty issues bit about recent environmental >mess ups . The D'arrigo paper is not convincing , but we have to do >some work to show why , instead of just saying this . The divergence >issue is NOT universal , and not unrelated to very recent period >bias arising from processing methods . It is VERY LIKELY not the >threshold problem D'Arrigo thinks it is. We need money here to work >on this and losing our last application to Europe has messed us up. >For now we can not include anything. I will work on text for the >next iteration. > >At 16:05 03/03/2006, you wrote: >>Hi Richard - this issue is one that we refer to in our key >>uncertainty table. I believe Keith Briffa was one of the first to >>write about it, and it is an important issue. I haven't seen R's >>paper or results myself, but I bet Keith has. I'm cc'ing this to >>him to see what he thinks. >> >>thanks, peck >> >>>Know anything about the "divergence problem" in tree rings? R D'arrigo >>>talked to the NRC yesterday. I didn't get to talk to her afterward, but >>>it looked to me that they have redrilled a bunch of the high-latitude tree >>>rings that underlie almost all of the high-res reconstructions, and the >>>tree rings are simply missing the post-1970s warming, with reasonably high >>>confidence. She didn't seem too worried, but she apparently has a paper >>>just out in JGR. It looked to me like she had pretty well killed the >>>hockey stick in public forum--they go out and look for the most-sensitive >>>trees at the edge of the treeline, flying over lots and lots of >>>trees that are >>>lesss sensitive but quite nearby, and when things get a little warmer, the >>>most-sensitive trees aren't anymore, and so the trees miss the extreme >>>warming of the recent times, and can't reliably be counted as catching >>>the extreme warmth of the MWP if there was extreme warmth then. >>>Because as far as I can tell the hockey stick really was a >>>tree-ring >>>record, regardless of how it was labelled as multiproxy, this looks to me >>>to be a really big deal. And, a big deal that may bite your chapter... >>>--Richard >> >> >>-- >>Jonathan T. Overpeck >>Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>Professor, Department of Geosciences >>Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences >> >>Mail and Fedex Address: >> >>Institute for the Study of Planet Earth >>715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor >>University of Arizona >>Tucson, AZ 85721 >>direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 >>fax: +1 520 792-8795 >>http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ >>http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/ > >-- >Professor Keith Briffa, >Climatic Research Unit >University of East Anglia >Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K. > >Phone: +44-1603-593909 >Fax: +44-1603-507784 > >http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/ -- Jonathan T. Overpeck Director, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth Professor, Department of Geosciences Professor, Department of Atmospheric Sciences Mail and Fedex Address: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth 715 N. Park Ave. 2nd Floor University of Arizona Tucson, AZ 85721 direct tel: +1 520 622-9065 fax: +1 520 792-8795 http://www.geo.arizona.edu/ http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/