From	Smith, G. (Geoff) (SG)	Date	Sat, 15 Jul 2006 10:36:57 +0800
To	itrdbfor@listserv.arizona.edu
Subject	Re: [ITRDBFOR] Joe Barton's hockey stick hearing coming up
Dr. Solomon, It is not clear what makes the Wegman Committee Report in your opinion a "new low". In scientific study, one part is clearly physical (growth rates of trees, IR absorption, etc.) and a separate part is the statistical treatment of the data. Dr. Wegman's report is clearly focused on the latter. He is well qualified to analyze statistical methods, as chair of the National Academy of Sciences' (NAS) Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics, and a board member of the American Statistical Association. The conclusion of the Committee headed by Dr. Wegman is clear - the statistical methods of MBH 98/99 cannot be relied upon to support the claim that the 90's were the hottest decade of the past millennium. If one wants to argue with Dr. Wegman's conclusion, it will be necessary to show how he has misunderstood or misrepresented the statistical methods used in those studies. Obviously this does not prove that the 90's were not the hottest decade of the past millennium, only that the MBH 98/99 analyses cannot be used to support that claim, nothing more and nothing less. Anyone interested in paleoclimatology in general, and dendrochronology in particular, should read the recent NAS report and the Wegman Committee Report (or in fact anyone interested in the use of statistics in climatology). Your last comment seems to reflect a belief that it is scurrilous to "question unquestioned science". Wouldn't there seem to be a long honored history of exactly this type of action, both before and after Einstein? Or perhaps I'm misinterpreting your remarks. Geoff Smith Singapore -----Original Message----- From: ITRDB Dendrochronology Forum [mailto:ITRDBFOR@LISTSERV.ARIZONA.EDU] On Behalf Of Allen M. Solomon Sent: Saturday, July 15, 2006 6:53 AM To: ITRDBFOR@LISTSERV.ARIZONA.EDU Subject: Re: Joe Barton's hockey stick hearing coming up You also may want to look at a new "report" prepared for Barton by a group of statisticians regarding the hockey stick - this is going to be the focus of the hearing, in order to advertise it. It seems (to me) to be a new low in politics to have a "congressional report" generated specifically to question unquestioned science. -Al Allen M Solomon, Ph.D. National Program Leader, Global Change Research USDA Forest Service 4th Floor, RPC 1601 North Kent St Arlington VA 22209 allensolomon@fs.fed.us 703 605 5251 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------- E&ENews PM Friday, July 14, 2006 CLIMATE: New House report sets stage for another 'hockey stick' brawl Lauren Morello, E&ENews PM reporter Flawed statistics underlie the controversial "hockey stick" climate analysis, according to a report released today by an ad hoc panel of scientists assembled by the House Energy and Commerce Committee. The report contradicts a recent National Academy of Sciences study that found the hockey stick analysis -- which concluded Earth has been warmer over the last millennium than at any other point -- is largely correct. Published in 1998 by the journal Nature, the hockey stick reconstructs past global average temperatures using data from corals, tree rings, ice cores and bore holes deep within the Earth -- the first to draw on multiple sources of "proxy data" to sketch a picture of past climate. The study includes a graph that shows Earth's average temperature increasing sharply during the 20th century, with an upward curve that resembles the blade of a hockey stick. Often cited as evidence that human emissions are the dominant cause of rising global temperatures, the graph became controversial after it appeared in a 2001 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. But the House Committee's ad hoc panel says the hockey stick's authors relied on statistics that are pre-disposed to produce the hockey-stick shape. Claims by the hockey stick paper's authors of unprecedented global warming during the 20th century "cannot be supported by [the] analysis," the panel concluded. The Energy and Commerce Committee -- whose chairman, Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas), is a leading Capitol Hill critic of the hockey-stick study -- has scheduled a hearing next week on the ad hoc panel's conclusions. In June 2005, Barton and Oversight and Investigations Subcommittee Chairman Ed Whitfield (R-Ky.) launched a probe into scientific and financial records of climatologists who created the graph -- Michael Mann of Pennsylvania State University, Raymond Bradley of the University of Massachusetts and Malcolm Hughes of the University of Arizona (Greenwire, July 18, 2005). That prompted a rare show of public infighting between Barton and Whitfield and House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert (R-N.Y.), who asked the National Academy of Sciences to examine the validity of the hockey stick and similar climate reconstructions (Greenwire, June 23). Click here to view the House panel report. Click here to view the National Academy of Sciences report. Click here to view the hockey stick paper [Nature subscription required]. ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------- Want more stories like this every day? Sign up for a free trial and get the best environmental and energy policy coverage available. Go to http://www.eenews.net/trial/ Watch OnPoint every day to see interviews with key environment and energy policy makers. Go to http://www.eande.tv ------------------------------------------------------------------------ -------- Environment & Energy Publishing, LLC E&E DAILY -- GREENWIRE -- E&ENews PM -- LAND LETTER -- E&ETV Phone: 202-628-6500 Copyright 2006 http://www.eenews.net ----- Original Message ----- From: "David M. Lawrence" To: Sent: Friday, July 14, 2006 3:13 PM Subject: Joe Barton's hockey stick hearing coming up >I thought I'd pass this on since tree-ring data and their use in > reconstructing past climates are central to the controversy. I wonder if > any attention will be paid to the recently released NRC report on climate > over the past 2,000 years, or in a forthcoming paper in Climate Change > that > finds the method used to obtain the hockey stick reasonably robust. > > Dave > > -- here's my note posted to two journalism lists -- > > It looks like Joe Barton will get all the climate uncertainty sorted out > on > Wednesday, June 19, at 10 a.m. He will be holding a hearing called > "Questions Surrounding the 'Hockey Stick' Temperature Studies: > Implications > for Climate Change Assessments." The hearing will focus on the notorious > "hockey stick" graph indicating that the temperatures in the latter part > of > the 20th century were higher than at any time in the last millennium. > > I doubt there will be more light than heat, but the hearing will be > interesting to watch, if anything. The hearing can be watched live via > the > Internet. > > For more information: > > http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/News/07142006_1989.htm > > http://energycommerce.house.gov/108/Hearings/07192006hearing1987/hearing .htm > > Dave > > ------------------------------------------------------ > David M. Lawrence | Home: (804) 559-9786 > 7471 Brook Way Court | Fax: (804) 559-9787 > Mechanicsville, VA 23111 | Email: dave@fuzzo.com > USA | http: http://fuzzo.com > ------------------------------------------------------ > > "We have met the enemy and he is us." -- Pogo > > "No trespassing > 4/17 of a haiku" -- Richard Brautigan >