| From | carl mears | Date | Tue, 04 Dec 2007 14:17:24 -0800 |
|---|---|---|---|
| To | Tom Wigley | ||
| CC | Phil Jones, Ben Santer, Tom Wigley, Peter Thorne, Steven Sherwood, John Lanzante, Karl E.Taylor, Dian J. Seidel, Melissa Free, Frank Wentz | ||
| Subject | Re: [Fwd: sorry to take your time up, but really do need a scrub of this singer/christy/etc effort] | ||
But you are assuming that there is no noise (instrumental or "weather") in the observations. -Carl At 01:57 PM 12/4/2007, Tom Wigley wrote: >All, > >Depends on whether the runs are independent. Are models independent? > >A billion runs would indeed reduce the statistical uncertainty to near >zero. What is left (if one compared with absolutely correct observed data) >is the mean model bias. > >Tom. > >++++++++++++++++++ > >carl mears wrote: > >>Hi Ben, Phil and others >> >>To me, the fundamental error is 2.3.1. Expecting the observed values to >>lie within >>+/- 2*sigma(SE) (i.e. sigma/(sqrt(N-1)) of the distribution of N model >>trends) is just >>wrong. >>If this were correct, we could just run the models a lot of times, say a >>billion or so, and have a >>very, very, very small sigma(SE) (assuming the sigma didn't grow >>much) and we'd never >>have "agreement" with anything. Absurd. >> >>Does IJC publish comments? >> >>-Carl >> >>At 02:09 AM 12/4/2007, Phil Jones wrote: >> >>> Ben, >>> It sure does! Have read briefly - the surface arguments are wrong. >>> I know editors have difficulty finding reviewers, but letting this one >>> pass is awful - and IJC was improving. >>> >>> Cheers >>> Phil >>> >>> >>>At 17:53 30/11/2007, Ben Santer wrote: >>> >>>>Dear folks, >>>> >>>>I'm forwarding this to you in confidence. We all knew that some >>>>journal, somewhere, would eventually publish this stuff. Turns out that >>>>it was the International Journal of Climatology. Strengthens the need >>>>for some form of update of the Santer et al. (2005) Science paper. >>>> >>>>With best regards, >>>> >>>>Ben >>>>---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>>Benjamin D. Santer >>>>Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison >>>>Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory >>>>P.O. Box 808, Mail Stop L-103 >>>>Livermore, CA 94550, U.S.A. >>>>Tel: (925) 422-2486 >>>>FAX: (925) 422-7675 >>>>email: santer1@llnl.gov >>>>---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>X-Account-Key: account1 >>>>Return-Path: >>>>Received: from mail-2.llnl.gov ([unix socket]) >>>> by mail-2.llnl.gov (Cyrus v2.2.12) with LMTPA; >>>> Fri, 30 Nov 2007 08:39:49 -0800 >>>>Received: from smtp.llnl.gov (nspiron-3.llnl.gov [128.115.41.83]) >>>> by mail-2.llnl.gov (8.13.1/8.12.3/LLNL evision: 1.6 $) with >>>> ESMTP id lAUGdl5E004790 >>>> for >>>>X-Attachments: DCPS-proofs_IJC07.pdf >>>>X-IronPort-AV: E=McAfee;i="5100,188,5173"; a="21323766" >>>>X-IronPort-AV: E=Sophos;i="4.23,235,1194249600"; >>>> d="pdf'?scan'208,217";a="21323766" >>>>Received: from nsziron-1.llnl.gov ([128.115.249.81]) >>>> by smtp.llnl.gov with ESMTP; 30 Nov 2007 08:39:47 -0800 >>>>X-Attachments: DCPS-proofs_IJC07.pdf >>>>X-IronPort-AV: E=McAfee;i="5100,188,5173"; a="6674079" >>>>X-IronPort-AV: E=Sophos;i="4.23,235,1194249600"; >>>> d="pdf'?scan'208,217";a="6674079" >>>>Received: from smtp-nv-vip1.nytimes.com (HELO nytimes.com) >>>>([199.181.175.116]) >>>> by nsziron-1.llnl.gov with ESMTP; 30 Nov 2007 08:39:43 -0800 >>>>Message-Id: <6.2.5.6.2.20071130111858.03540590@nytimes.com> >>>>X-Mailer: QUALCOMM Windows Eudora Version 6.2.5.6 >>>>Date: Fri, 30 Nov 2007 11:38:52 -0500 >>>>To: santer1@llnl.gov, broccoli@envsci.rutgers.edu, mears@remss.com >>>>From: Andrew Revkin >>>>Subject: sorry to take your time up, but really do need a scrub of this >>>> singer/christy/etc effort >>>>Mime-Version: 1.0 >>>>Content-Type: multipart/mixed; >>>> boundary="=====================_67524015==_" >>>>X-NYTOriginatingHost: [10.149.144.50] >>>> >>>>hi, >>>>for moment please do not distribute or discuss. >>>>trying to get a sense of whether singer / christy can get any traction >>>>with this at all. >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>>*_ ANDREW C. REVKIN >>>> >>>>Earth >>>> >>>>phone: 212-556-7326 fax: 509/ /-357-0965 mobile: 914-441-5556 >>> >>> >>>Prof. Phil Jones >>>Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 >>>School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 >>>University of East Anglia >>>Norwich Email p.jones@uea.ac.uk >>>NR4 7TJ >>>UK >>> >>>---------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> >> >> >> >>Dr. Carl Mears >>Remote Sensing Systems >>438 First Street, Suite 200, Santa Rosa, CA 95401 >>mears@remss.com >>707-545-2904 x21 >>707-545-2906 (fax)) > Dr. Carl Mears Remote Sensing Systems 438 First Street, Suite 200, Santa Rosa, CA 95401 mears@remss.com 707-545-2904 x21 707-545-2906 (fax)) | |||