From	James Hansen	Date	Fri, 18 Jan 2008 05:17:06 -0500
To	Phil Jones
CC	Kevin Trenberth, Thomas R Karl, Reto Ruedy
Subject	Re: [Fwd: RE: Dueling climates]
Thanks, Phil. Here is a way that Reto likes to list the rankings that come out of our version of land-ocean index. rank LOTI 1 2005 0.62C 2 1998 0.57C 2007 0.57C 2002 0.56C 2003 0.55C 2006 0.54C 7 2004 0.49C i.e., the second through sixth are in a statistical tie for second in our analysis. This seems useful, and most reporters are sort of willing to accept it. Given differences in treating the Arctic etc., there will be substantial differences in rankings. I would be a bit surprised is #7 (2004) jumpred ahead to be #2 in someone else's analysis, but perhaps even that is possible, given the magnitude of these differences. Jim On Jan 18, 2008 5:03 AM, Phil Jones <[1]p.jones@uea.ac.uk> wrote: Kevin, When asked I always say the differences are due to the cross-Arctic extrapolation. Also as you say there is an issue of SST/MAT coming in from ships/buoys in the Arctic. HadCRUT3 (really HadSST2) doesn't use these where there isn't a 61-90 climatology - a lot of areas with sea ice in most/some years in the base period. Using fixed SST values of -1.8C is possible for months with sea ice, but is likely to be wrong. MAT would be impossible to develop 61-90 climatologies for when sea ice was there. This is an issue that will have to addressed at some point as the sea ice disappears. Maybe we could develop possible approaches using some AMIP type Arctic RCM simulations? Agreeing on the ranks is the hardest of all measures. Uncertainties in global averages are of the order of +/- 0.05 for one sigma, so any difference between years of less than 0.1 isn't significant. We (MOHC/CRU) put annual values in press releases, but we also put errors. UK newspapers quote these, and the journalists realise about uncertainties, but prefer to use the word accuracy. We only make the press releases to get the numbers out at one time, and focus all the calls. We do this through WMO, who want the release in mid-Dec. There is absolutely no sense of duelling in this. We would be criticised if there were just one analysis. The science is pushing for multiple analyses of the same measure - partly to make sure people remember RSS and not just believe UAH. As we all know, NOAA/NASA and HadCRUT3 are all much closer than RSS and UAH! I know we all know all the above. I try to address this when talking to journalists, but they generally ignore this level of detail. I'll be in Boulder the week after next at the IDAG meeting (Jan 28-30) and another meeting Jan30/Feb 1. Tom will be also. Cheers Phil At 02:12 18/01/2008, Kevin Trenberth wrote: FYI See the discussion below. Looks like clarification is called for when these statements are made that consider the other announcements. Kevin -------- Original Message -------- Subject: RE: Dueling climates Date: Thu, 17 Jan 2008 18:51:13 -0500 From: Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal) [2] To: Kevin Trenberth [3], [4] CC: [5] References: [6]<7C368A942599A944A0C43774DE6412EE044C9964@DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com> [7]<478F89E4.10405@ucar.edu> [8]<478FBF64.1020500@ucar.edu> Rick, Kevin,  Attached is the NOAA release. I believe I had read that the discrepancy with the NASA ("Second hottest year") data/release was also related to how NOAA adjusts for heat island effects and resiteing of climate stations. In any event I don't think dueling climate data serves the broad goals of informing/educating the public and decision makers about climate change. I can hear some saying, "If NOAA and NASA can't even agree what the temperature was last year, how can we believe what they are saying about the future climate".  Bob   ______________________________________________________________________________________ From: Kevin Trenberth [[9]mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu] Sent: Thursday, January 17, 2008 3:50 PM To: [10]anthes@ucar.edu Cc: Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal); [11]kseitter@ametsoc.org Subject: Re: Dueling climates Hi Rick My understanding is that the biggest source of this discrepancy is the way the Arctic is analyzed. We know that the sea ice was at record low values, 22% lower than the previous low in 2005. Some sea temperatures and air temperatures were as much as 7C above normal. But most places there is no conventional data. In NASA they extrapolate and build in the high temperatures in the Arctic. In the other records they do not. They use only the data available and the rest is missing. In most cases the values from recent years are about statistically tied and the ranking is one that separates values by hundredths of a degree. There is no correct way to do this (especially the treatment of missing data), and different groups do it differently. You typically get different answers if you compute the hemispheric means and average them vs computing the global mean, because more data are missing in the southern hemisphere. Although this can be addressed using remote sensing in recent times, the climatologies differ. Ideally one should have a global analysis with no missing data, and this occurs in the global analyses, but they have other problems. Hope this helps Kevin Rick Anthes wrote: Bob- I saw the NASA one (GISS) but not the NOAA release. Could you point me toward it? I see your point. These preliminary analyses may change with time and the press releases have not been peer-reviewed. I am surprised the two estimates disagree this much, but the difference is probably well within the uncertainty of the estimate of annual global temperatures. I'd be interested in Kevin's take on this. Rick Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal) wrote: Rick, Keith,  Don't know if this will come up in the Council or if there is time to even discuss but I'm sure you've seen the NOAA/NASA press releases and the news stories about the 2007 global temperatures. NASA says tied for "2nd hottest". . . NOAA says 5th warmest global and only 10th in US. Who does this serve but create confusion and add to the skeptics/denialists argument. . ."They can't even agree on last year's temperatures. . .why should we believe them?"  Science by press release doesn't serve anyone and certainly not a curious public.  Role for the AMS?   See you soon.  Bob Subject: NASA SCIENTISTS RELEASE 2007 TEMPERATURE DATA From: "Maria Frostic" [12] Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 18:26:13 -0500 To: "Maria Frostic" [13] To: "Maria Frostic" [14] Maria Frostic     1/15/08 (301) 286-9017 2007 Among Hottest Years on Record: NASA Scientists Release Global Temperature Analysis An analysis of 2007 global temperature data undertaken by scientists at Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), New York, reveals that 2007 is tied with 1998 as the second hottest year on record. The unusual warmth of 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean has entered the cool phase of its El NiÅo-La NiÅa cycle. The greatest warming in 2007 occurred in the Arctic. Global warming has a larger affect in polar areas, as the loss of snow and ice leads to more open water, which absorbs more sunlight and warmth. The large Arctic warm anomaly of 2007 is consistent with observations of record low Arctic sea ice in September 2007. The eight warmest years in the GISS record have all occurred since 1998, with 2005 ranking as the hottest. Barring a large volcanic eruption, NASA scientists predict that a record global temperature exceeding that of 2005 can be expected within the next two to three years. A NASA TV Video File on this topic will run January 16th at 9 A.M., 12, 4, 8, and 10 P.M. EDT on the NASA TV media channel (#103). Video Highlights: * Colorful Visualizations of Global Temperature Data from 1880-2007 * Animations of Unique Perspectives on Ice Albedo * Animated Earth Displaying Seasonal Landcover and Arctic Sea Ice * Select Interview Clips with NASA Scientist Dr. James Hansen For high definition video downloads, print resolution still images, and a short web video on taking Earth's temperature, visit:  [15]http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth_temp.html NASA Television is carried on an MPEG-2 digital signal accessed via satellite AMC-6, at 72 degrees west longitude, transponder 17C, 4040 MHz, vertical polarization. A Digital Video Broadcast (DVB) - compliant Integrated Receiver Decoder (IRD) with modulation of QPSK/DBV, data rate of 36.86 and FEC <= is needed for reception. NASA TV Multichannel Broadcast includes Public Services Channel (#101), the Education Channel (#102) and the Media Services Channel (#103). For NASA TV information and schedules on the Web, visit: [16]www.nasa.gov/ntv Subject: NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide From: "NOAA News Releases" [17] Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:00:00 -0500 To: "Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" [18] To: "Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" [19] TO: Ryan, Bob; WRC-TV FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 15, 2008 *** NEWS FROM NOAA *** NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON, DC Contact: John Leslie, 301-713-2087, ext. 174 NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide       The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. in 2007 is officially the tenth warmest on record, according to data from scientists at NOAAâs National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The agency also determined the global surface temperature last year was the fifth warmest on record. U.S. Temperature Highlights * The average U.S. temperature for 2007 was 54.2 degrees F; 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 20th century mean of 52.8 degrees F. NCDC originally estimated in mid-December that 2007 would end as the eighth warmest on record, but below-average temperatures in areas of the country last month lowered the annual ranking. For Alaska, 2007 was the 15th warmest year since statewide records began in 1918. * Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of a three decade period in which mean temperatures for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6 degrees F per decade. * For the contiguous U.S., the December 2007 mean temperature was 33.6 degrees F, near the 20th century average of 33.4 degrees F. The Southeast was much warmer than average, while 11 states, from the Upper Midwest to the West Coast, were cooler than average. * Warmer-than-average temperatures for December 2007 in large parts of the more heavily populated eastern U.S. resulted in temperature related energy demand about 1.9 percent below average for the nation as a whole, based on NOAAâs Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index. For the year, the REDTI estimates that national residential energy consumption was about 2.5 percent below average. U.S. Precipitation Highlights December 2007 * December 2007 was wetter than normal for the contiguous U.S., the 18th wettest December since national records began in 1895. Thirty-seven states were wetter, or much wetter, than average. Only Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Dakota were drier than average. * Precipitation was much above average in Washington state, due to a powerful storm that struck the Pacific Northwest in early December. Heavy rain and wind gusts greater than 100 mph caused widespread damage and the worst flooding in more than a decade in parts of western Oregon and Washington. Many locations received more than 10 inches of rainfall during the first three days of the month. * While above-average precipitation in late November and December led to improving drought conditions in parts of the Southwest, Southeast, and New England, more than three-fourths of the Southeast and half of the West remained in some stage of drought. Global Highlights * For December 2007, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the 13th warmest on record (0.72 degrees F or 0.40 degrees C above the 20th century mean). Separately, the global December land-surface temperature was the eighth warmest on record. The most anomalously warm temperatures occurred from Scandinavia to central Asia. * La Niña continued to strengthen as ocean surface temperatures in large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) below average. The continuation of cooler-than-average temperatures dampened the global ocean average, which was the 18th warmest on record for December. * For 2007, the global land and ocean surface temperature was the fifth warmest on record. Separately, the global land surface temperature was warmest on record while the global ocean temperature was 9th warmest since records began in 1880. Seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise in temperatures of more than 1 degree F (0.6 degrees C) since 1900. Within the past three decades, the rate of warming in global temperatures has been approximately three times greater than the century scale trend. Note to Editors: Additional information on U.S. climate conditions in December and for 2007 is available online at: [20]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html and [21]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html. - 30 - -- ****************************************************************** Dr.Richard A. Anthes Phone: 303-497-1652 President University Corporation for Atmospheric Research P.O. Box 3000 Boulder, CO 80307-3000 For delivery via express mail, please use: 1850 Table Mesa Drive Boulder, CO 80305 ***************************************************************** -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [22]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, [23] www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html NCAR P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305 -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [24]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, NCAR [25]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305 X-MimeOLE: Produced By Microsoft Exchange V6.5 Received: from [26]rkfmlef01.e2k.ad.ge.com ([[27]3.159.183.51]) by [28]DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(6.0.3790.2499); Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:59:24 -0500 MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----_=_NextPart_003_01C857B1.23BF5550" Received: from [29]useclpexw213.nbcuni.ge.com ([[30]3.44.150.24]) by [31]rkfmlef01.e2k.ad.ge.com with Microsoft SMTPSVC(6.0.3790.2499); Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:59:24 -0500 Received: from [32]int-ch1gw-3.online-age.net ([[33]3.159.232.67]) by [34]useclpexw213.nbcuni.ge.com (SonicWALL 6.0.1.9157) with ESMTP; Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:59:24 -0500 Received: from [35]ext-ch1gw-9.online-age.net (int-ch1gw-3 [[36]3.159.232.67]) by [37]int-ch1gw-3.online-age.net (8.13.6/8.13.6/20050510-SVVS) with ESMTP id m0FJxNgI021683 for <[38]bob.ryan@nbc.com>; Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:59:23 -0500 (EST) Received: from [39]mmp2.nems.noaa.gov ([40]mmp2.nems.noaa.gov [[41]140.90.121.157]) by [42]ext-ch1gw-9.online-age.net (8.13.6/8.13.6/20051111-SVVS-TLS-DNSBL) with ESMTP id m0FJxKss007414 for <[43]bob.ryan@nbc.com>; Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:59:23 -0500 Received: from [44]HCHB-WIRNS.noaa.gov ([[45]170.110.255.148]) by [46]mmp2.nems.noaa.gov (Sun Java System Messaging Server 6.2-6.01 (built Apr 3 2006)) with ESMTPSA id <[47]0JUP00MVJBIAQ7B0@mmp2.nems.noaa.gov> for [48]bob.ryan@nbc.com; Tue, 15 Jan 2008 14:59:16 -0500 (EST) Content-class: urn:content-classes:message Subject: NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide Date: Tue, 15 Jan 2008 15:00:00 -0500 Message-ID: <[49]0JUP00MZVBISQ7B0@mmp2.nems.noaa.gov> X-MS-Has-Attach: X-MS-TNEF-Correlator: Thread-Topic: NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide Thread-Index: AchXsSO/aYafvboCRgCNpqPHISPHPg== From: "NOAA News Releases" <[50]Press.Releases@noaa.gov> To: "Ryan, Bob (NBC Universal)" <[51]Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com> TO: Ryan, Bob; WRC-TV FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE January 15, 2008 *** NEWS FROM NOAA *** NATIONAL OCEANIC & ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON, DC Contact: John Leslie, 301-713-2087, ext. 174 NOAA: 2007 Was Tenth Warmest for U.S., Fifth Warmest Worldwide The average temperature for the contiguous U.S. in 2007 is officially the tenth warmest on record, according to data from scientists at NOAA's National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. The agency also determined the global surface temperature last year was the fifth warmest on record. U.S. Temperature Highlights * The average U.S. temperature for 2007 was 54.2 degrees F; 1.4 degrees F warmer than the 20th century mean of 52.8 degrees F. NCDC originally estimated in mid-December that 2007 would end as the eighth warmest on record, but below-average temperatures in areas of the country last month lowered the annual ranking. For Alaska, 2007 was the 15th warmest year since statewide records began in 1918. * Six of the 10 warmest years on record for the contiguous U.S. have occurred since 1998, part of a three decade period in which mean temperatures for the contiguous U.S. have risen at a rate near 0.6 degrees F per decade. * For the contiguous U.S., the December 2007 mean temperature was 33.6 degrees F, near the 20th century average of 33.4 degrees F. The Southeast was much warmer than average, while 11 states, from the Upper Midwest to the West Coast, were cooler than average. * Warmer-than-average temperatures for December 2007 in large parts of the more heavily populated eastern U.S. resulted in temperature related energy demand about 1.9 percent below average for the nation as a whole, based on NOAA's Residential Energy Demand Temperature Index. For the year, the REDTI estimates that national residential energy consumption was about 2.5 percent below average. U.S. Precipitation Highlights December 2007 * December 2007 was wetter than normal for the contiguous U.S., the 18th wettest December since national records began in 1895. Thirty-seven states were wetter, or much wetter, than average. Only Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and North Dakota were drier than average. * Precipitation was much above average in Washington state, due to a powerful storm that struck the Pacific Northwest in early December. Heavy rain and wind gusts greater than 100 mph caused widespread damage and the worst flooding in more than a decade in parts of western Oregon and Washington. Many locations received more than 10 inches of rainfall during the first three days of the month. * While above-average precipitation in late November and December led to improving drought conditions in parts of the Southwest, Southeast, and New England, more than three-fourths of the Southeast and half of the West remained in some stage of drought. Global Highlights * For December 2007, the combined global land and ocean surface temperature was the 13th warmest on record (0.72 degrees F or 0.40 degrees C above the 20th century mean). Separately, the global December land-surface temperature was the eighth warmest on record. The most anomalously warm temperatures occurred from Scandinavia to central Asia. * La Niña continued to strengthen as ocean surface temperatures in large areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific were more than 3 degrees F (1.7 degrees C) below average. The continuation of cooler-than-average temperatures dampened the global ocean average, which was the 18th warmest on record for December. * For 2007, the global land and ocean surface temperature was the fifth warmest on record. Separately, the global land surface temperature was warmest on record while the global ocean temperature was 9th warmest since records began in 1880. Seven of the eight warmest years on record have occurred since 2001, part of a rise in temperatures of more than 1 degree F (0.6 degrees C) since 1900. Within the past three decades, the rate of warming in global temperatures has been approximately three times greater than the century scale trend. Note to Editors: Additional information on U.S. climate conditions in December and for 2007 is available online at: [52]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html and [53]http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html . - 30 - Prof. Phil Jones Climatic Research Unit Telephone +44 (0) 1603 592090 School of Environmental Sciences Fax +44 (0) 1603 507784 University of East Anglia Norwich Email [54]p.jones@uea.ac.uk NR4 7TJ UK ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- References 1. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk 2. mailto:Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com 3. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu 4. mailto:anthes@ucar.edu 5. mailto:kseitter@ametsoc.org 6. mailto:7C368A942599A944A0C43774DE6412EE044C9964@DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com 7. mailto:478F89E4.10405@ucar.edu 8. mailto:478FBF64.1020500@ucar.edu 9. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu 10. mailto:anthes@ucar.edu 11. mailto:kseitter@ametsoc.org 12. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov 13. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov 14. mailto:mfrostic@pop100.gsfc.nasa.gov 15. http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/earth_temp.html 16. http://www.nasa.gov/ntv 17. mailto:Press.Releases@noaa.gov 18. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com 19. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com 20. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html 21. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html 22. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu 23. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html 24. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu 25. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/ 26. http://rkfmlef01.e2k.ad.ge.com/ 27. http://3.159.183.51/ 28. http://DCNMLVEM01.e2k.ad.ge.com/ 29. http://useclpexw213.nbcuni.ge.com/ 30. http://3.44.150.24/ 31. http://rkfmlef01.e2k.ad.ge.com/ 32. http://int-ch1gw-3.online-age.net/ 33. http://3.159.232.67/ 34. http://useclpexw213.nbcuni.ge.com/ 35. http://ext-ch1gw-9.online-age.net/ 36. http://3.159.232.67/ 37. http://int-ch1gw-3.online-age.net/ 38. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com 39. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/ 40. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/ 41. http://140.90.121.157/ 42. http://ext-ch1gw-9.online-age.net/ 43. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com 44. http://HCHB-WIRNS.noaa.gov/ 45. http://170.110.255.148/ 46. http://mmp2.nems.noaa.gov/ 47. mailto:0JUP00MVJBIAQ7B0@mmp2.nems.noaa.gov 48. mailto:bob.ryan@nbc.com 49. mailto:0JUP00MZVBISQ7B0@mmp2.nems.noaa.gov 50. mailto:Press.Releases@noaa.gov 51. mailto:Bob.Ryan@nbcuni.com 52. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/dec/dec07.html 53. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/2007/ann/ann07.html 54. mailto:p.jones@uea.ac.uk