From	Michael E. Mann	Date	Fri, 29 Aug 2008 15:53:41 -0400
To	Thomas R Karl
CC	Kevin Trenberth, Curtis Covey, Michael E. Mann, Folland, Chris, Ben Santer, Tom Wigley, Phil Jones, Keith Briffa, Stefan Rahmstorf, Gavin Schmidt, James Hansen
Subject	Re: paper on smoothing
yeah, its statistically real, but an artifact almost certainly of natural variability. As Josh Willis nicely pointed out in a recent interview, anyone citing this as a reason to doubt the reality of anthropogenic climate change is like a vegas roller thinking he can beat the system because he's on a momentary winning streak... m Thomas.R.Karl wrote: > Curt, > > At this point the leveling off is more of a Blog myth than any change > point scientific analysis > > Tom > Kevin Trenberth said the following on 8/29/2008 3:47 PM: >> No >> Kevin >> >> Curtis Covey wrote: >>> Very interesting. Does it mean that the apparent leveling-off of >>> global mean surface temperature since the turn of the century is due >>> to "artificial suppression of trends near the time series boundaries" ? >>> >>> - Curt >>> >>> Michael Mann wrote: >>>> dear all, >>>> >>>> attached is a paper of mine (GRL) on time series smoothing that >>>> might be of interest. >>>> >>>> best regards, >>>> >>>> mike >>>> >> > -- Michael E. Mann Associate Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 website: http://www.met.psu.edu/dept/faculty/mann.htm "Dire Predictions" book site: http://www.pearsonhighered.com/academic/product/0,3110,0136044352,00.html