From	Kevin Trenberth	Date	Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
To	Michael E. Mann
CC	Stephen H Schneider, Myles Allen, Stott, Peter, Phil Jones, Ben Santer, Tom Wigley, Thomas R Karl, Gavin Schmidt, James Hansen, Michael Oppenheimer
Subject	Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Hi all Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming? We are asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2 days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low, well below the previous record low. This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather). Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1, 19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published version can be obtained from the author.) The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate. That said there is a LOT of nonsense about the PDO. People like CPC are tracking PDO on a monthly basis but it is highly correlated with ENSO. Most of what they are seeing is the change in ENSO not real PDO. It surely isn't decadal. The PDO is already reversing with the switch to El Nino. The PDO index became positive in September for first time since Sept 2007. see [2]http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_c urrent.ppt Kevin Michael Mann wrote: extremely disappointing to see something like this appear on BBC. its particularly odd, since climate is usually Richard Black's beat at BBC (and he does a great job). from what I can tell, this guy was formerly a weather person at the Met Office. We may do something about this on RealClimate, but meanwhile it might be appropriate for the Met Office to have a say about this, I might ask Richard Black what's up here? mike On Oct 12, 2009, at 2:32 AM, Stephen H Schneider wrote: Hi all. Any of you want to explain decadal natural variability and signal to noise and sampling errors to this new "IPCC Lead Author" from the BBC? As we enter an El Nino year and as soon, as the sunspots get over their temporary--presumed--vacation worth a few tenths of a Watt per meter squared reduced forcing, there will likely be another dramatic upward spike like 1992-2000. I heard someone--Mike Schlesinger maybe??--was willing to bet alot of money on it happening in next 5 years?? Meanwhile the past 10 years of global mean temperature trend stasis still saw what, 9 of the warmest in reconstructed 1000 year record and Greenland and the sea ice of the North in big retreat?? Some of you observational folks probably do need to straighten this out as my student suggests below. Such "fun", Cheers, Steve Stephen H. Schneider Melvin and Joan Lane Professor for Interdisciplinary Environmental Studies, Professor, Department of Biology and Senior Fellow, Woods Institute for the Environment Mailing address: Yang & Yamazaki Environment & Energy Building - MC 4205 473 Via Ortega Ph: 650 725 9978 F: 650 725 4387 Websites: climatechange.net patientfromhell.org ----- Forwarded Message ----- From: "Narasimha D. Rao" <[3]ndrao@stanford.edu> To: "Stephen H Schneider" <[4]shs@stanford.edu> Sent: Sunday, October 11, 2009 10:25:53 AM GMT -08:00 US/Canada Pacific Subject: BBC U-turn on climate Steve, You may be aware of this already. Paul Hudson, BBC's reporter on climate change, on Friday wrote that there's been no warming since 1998, and that pacific oscillations will force cooling for the next 20-30 years. It is not outrageously biased in presentation as are other skeptics' views. [5]http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm [6]http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100013173/the-bbcs-amazing-u-turn-on-cl imate-change/ BBC has significant influence on public opinion outside the US. Do you think this merits an op-ed response in the BBC from a scientist? Narasimha ------------------------------- PhD Candidate, Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources (E-IPER) Stanford University Tel: 415-812-7560 -- Michael E. Mann Professor Director, Earth System Science Center (ESSC) Department of Meteorology Phone: (814) 863-4075 503 Walker Building FAX: (814) 865-3663 The Pennsylvania State University email: [7]mann@psu.edu University Park, PA 16802-5013 website: [8]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/Mann/index.html "Dire Predictions" book site: [9]http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html -- **************** Kevin E. Trenberth e-mail: [10]trenbert@ucar.edu Climate Analysis Section, [11]www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html NCAR P. O. Box 3000, (303) 497 1318 Boulder, CO 80307 (303) 497 1333 (fax) Street address: 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO 80305 References 1. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/Trenberth/trenberth.papers/EnergyDiagnostics09final.pdf 2. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/ocean_briefing_gif/global_ocean_monitoring_current.ppt 3. mailto:ndrao@stanford.edu 4. mailto:shs@stanford.edu 5. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/8299079.stm 6. http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100013173/the-bbcs-amazing-u-turn-on-climate-change/ 7. mailto:mann@psu.edu 8. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Emann/Mann/index.html 9. http://www.essc.psu.edu/essc_web/news/DirePredictions/index.html 10. mailto:trenbert@ucar.edu 11. http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/trenbert.html