FromKeith BriffaDateWed Jun 4 16:02:09 2003
ToEdward R. Cook
SubjectRe: Review- confidential REALLY URGENT
Hi Big Boy
You just caught me as I was about to slope off after a brutal day - we spent all day
yesterday interviewing for a job we have and then someone accepted it - and now Janice
tells us we don't have the money to pay at therate the job was advertised for! This attack
sounds like the last straw- from what you say it is a waste of time my looking at it but
send a copy anyway. The file you have is an old version of a reconstruction output for one
Tornetrask reconstruction - if it was labelled something like 990 it is the original Nature
one , but 997 (i Think//1) would make it the Climate Dynamics one . Trouble is I will have
to go back and find out which . Please ring if I haven't my tomorrow to remind me - and
concentrate on the review for now. I will also talk about an extended nearby data set
(temp) that might allow a longer more rigorous validation . Kirsten has just done Math GCSE
and Amy her driving test so I have to go and picjk them up. I will looke at the file and be
ready with an answer by midday my time. the best and a beer til then
Keith
At 09:50 AM 6/4/03 -0400, you wrote:

Hi Keith,
Okay, today. Promise! Now something to ask from you. Actually somewhat important too. I
got a paper to review (submitted to the Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and
Environmental Sciences), written by a Korean guy and someone from Berkeley, that claims
that the method of reconstruction that we use in dendroclimatology (reverse regression)
is wrong, biased, lousy, horrible, etc. They use your Tornetrask recon as the main
whipping boy. I have a file that you gave me in 1993 that comes from your 1992 paper.
Below is part of that file. Is this the right one? Also, is it possible to resurrect the
column headings? I would like to play with it in an effort to refute their claims.
If published as is, this paper could really do some damage. It is also an ugly paper to
review because it is rather mathematical, with a lot of Box-Jenkins stuff in it. It
won't be easy to dismiss out of hand as the math appears to be correct theoretically,
but it suffers from the classic problem of pointing out theoretical deficiencies,
without showing that their improved inverse regression method is actually better in a
practical sense. So they do lots of monte carlo stuff that shows the superiority of
their method and the deficiencies of our way of doing things, but NEVER actually show
how their method would change the Tornetrask reconstruction from what you produced.
Your assistance here is greatly appreciated. Otherwise, I will let Tornetrask sink into
the melting permafrost of northern Sweden (just kidding of course).
Cheers,
Ed
TORNETRASK RECONSTRUCTION
500 1.24 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.81 0.31
501 0.38 -9.99 0.00 0.25 0.81 0.39
502 0.51 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.81 0.25
503 0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.34
504 -1.32 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.34
505 -0.65 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.81 0.25
506 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.81 0.24
507 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.19 0.81 0.33
508 0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.16 0.81 0.31
509 0.93 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.27
510 0.02 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.81 0.29
511 -1.62 -9.99 0.00 0.20 0.81 0.35
512 -0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.81 0.28
513 1.00 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.27
514 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.14 0.81 0.29
515 -0.96 -9.99 0.00 0.11 0.81 0.26
516 -0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.81 0.27
517 0.35 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25
518 0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26
519 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26
520 -0.19 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.26
521 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.85 0.38
522 -0.83 -9.99 0.00 0.23 0.85 0.37
523 0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24
524 -0.27 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.85 0.25
525 0.14 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.85 0.24
526 0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.10 0.85 0.25
527 -0.31 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.85 0.28
528 0.46 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25
529 0.01 -9.99 0.00 0.09 0.85 0.25
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1848 0.10 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24
1849 -0.39 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28
1850 0.55 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.29
1851 0.04 -9.99 0.00 0.13 1.00 0.27 1.92 0.96 -1.98 -1.24
-1.41 -0.35
1852 0.68 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.82 0.59 1.66 1.95
2.12 0.70
1853 0.67 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28 -2.23 0.24 2.27 1.64
-0.33 0.32
1854 1.13 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.27 0.21 1.57 0.89 2.47
2.11 1.45
1855 0.05 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.29 -0.74 -0.80 0.24 4.19
-0.16 0.55
1856 -1.41 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.33 -0.48 -1.24 -1.37 -0.34
-2.55 -1.20
1857 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.19 1.00 0.32 -1.13 -0.78 -1.39 -0.23
2.44 -0.22
1858 0.81 -9.99 0.00 0.15 1.00 0.28 -0.63 0.48 1.37 2.74
2.72 1.34
1859 -0.60 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 -1.28 0.73 1.04 0.10
0.16 0.15
1860 0.49 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.41 -1.37 0.62 0.42
0.17 -0.11
1861 0.73 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.19 -2.59 1.54 2.27
0.33 0.07
1862 -0.15 -9.99 0.00 0.06 1.00 0.22 -0.06 0.50 -1.16 -2.08
-1.95 -0.95
1863 0.03 -9.99 0.00 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.00 -0.79 0.18 -1.72
-0.60 -0.39
1864 -0.50 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.49 -3.34 0.26 0.74
-2.40 -1.05
1865 -0.32 -9.99 0.00 0.07 1.00 0.22 0.10 0.14 -2.96 1.61
-1.31 -0.48
1866 -0.37 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.29 -1.99 0.67 -1.17
0.67 -0.31
1867 -1.03 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.83 -5.37 -2.59 -0.62
-0.31 -2.34
1868 -0.28 -9.99 0.00 0.16 1.00 0.29 -0.02 1.04 -0.36 1.72
2.78 1.03
1869 -0.84 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 1.21 -1.14 -1.40 0.53
-0.63 -0.29
1870 -0.25 -9.99 0.00 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.33 -0.70 -0.27 1.12
-0.36 0.22
1871 -0.59 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 -2.34 -2.32 -2.34 1.12
-0.09 -1.19
1872 0.44 -9.99 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.25 0.80 0.57 1.16 1.32
-0.34 0.70
1873 0.52 -9.99 0.00 0.14 1.00 0.28 -1.97 -2.50 0.82 1.38
0.12 -0.43
1874 -0.54 -9.99 0.00 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.25 -2.24 -1.15 0.15
-1.06 -0.81
1875 0.36 -9.99 0.00 0.09 1.00 0.24 -1.96 0.36 0.00 0.87
-0.33 -0.21
1876 0.46 -0.15 0.61 0.12 1.00 0.25 -0.70 -3.06 1.93 0.74
0.34 -0.15
1877 -0.98 -1.74 0.76 0.14 1.00 0.28 -3.31 -2.70 -1.18 0.26
-1.76 -1.74
1878 -0.04 -0.19 0.15 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.02 -0.30 0.16 -1.71
-0.12 -0.19
1879 0.20 -0.41 0.62 0.10 1.00 0.25 -1.24 -0.19 -1.09 -0.64
1.09 -0.41
1880 -1.05 0.14 -1.19 0.17 1.00 0.31 0.17 -0.53 -0.70 -0.20
1.94 0.14
1881 -1.34 -1.88 0.54 0.17 1.00 0.30 -3.66 -2.02 -1.35 -1.07
-1.32 -1.88
1882 0.30 0.37 -0.08 0.16 1.00 0.30 -0.32 0.21 -0.36 0.56
1.78 0.37
1883 1.13 0.24 0.89 0.13 1.00 0.26 0.49 -0.08 0.99 0.52
-0.70 0.24
1884 0.00 -0.80 0.80 0.14 1.00 0.27 -0.80 -1.99 -1.15 0.32
-0.39 -0.80
1885 -1.26 -1.25 -0.01 0.14 1.00 0.28 -0.29 -2.26 -2.34 0.42
-1.76 -1.25
1886 -0.24 0.10 -0.34 0.15 1.00 0.28 0.69 -0.55 -0.01 0.13
0.24 0.10
1887 -0.83 -0.40 -0.43 0.14 1.00 0.27 -0.10 0.23 -1.01 -0.12
-1.02 -0.40
1888 -0.79 -1.69 0.90 0.12 1.00 0.26 -2.95 -1.85 -1.37 -1.05
-1.25 -1.69
1889 0.28 0.71 -0.43 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.46 2.98 2.28 -0.40
-0.84 0.71
1890 0.47 0.22 0.25 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.06 2.04 -0.58 -1.18
-0.26 0.22
1891 -0.55 -0.49 -0.06 0.16 1.00 0.30 -0.43 -0.38 -1.74 1.24
-1.12 -0.49
1892 -1.58 -1.46 -0.12 0.16 1.00 0.29 -0.95 -1.55 -2.20 -1.24
-1.36 -1.46
1893 -0.61 -0.60 -0.01 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.46 -1.17 -0.48 -0.07
-0.80 -0.60
1894 0.53 0.79 -0.26 0.09 1.00 0.24 2.61 0.07 0.50 1.18
-0.40 0.79
1895 0.68 0.38 0.30 0.09 1.00 0.24 -0.15 2.19 0.78 -0.66
-0.24 0.38
1896 0.06 0.47 -0.41 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.04 -0.30 1.40 2.02
-0.73 0.47
1897 0.71 1.01 -0.30 0.13 1.00 0.27 0.90 2.20 -0.20 1.10
1.05 1.01
1898 0.10 -0.61 0.71 0.12 1.00 0.25 -1.06 -0.20 -0.16 -1.03
-0.60 -0.61
1899 -1.36 -0.84 -0.53 0.17 1.00 0.31 -0.98 -1.95 -1.85 2.38
-1.79 -0.84
1900 -0.38 -0.89 0.51 0.18 1.00 0.31 -1.31 -2.02 -0.02 -1.11
-0.01 -0.89
1901 0.85 1.32 -0.47 0.17 1.00 0.30 0.76 0.56 1.05 3.24
1.00 1.32
1902 -1.59 -2.44 0.85 0.19 1.00 0.33 -2.71 -2.33 -2.44 -2.52
-2.22 -2.44
1903 -1.27 -0.42 -0.85 0.20 1.00 0.33 0.36 0.14 -0.37 -1.02
-1.22 -0.42
1904 -1.52 -1.11 -0.42 0.15 1.00 0.29 0.77 -1.61 -1.73 -1.64
-1.32 -1.11
1905 -0.45 -0.06 -0.39 0.08 1.00 0.23 -1.29 0.69 1.41 0.05
-1.16 -0.06
1906 -0.44 0.55 -0.98 0.08 1.00 0.23 1.44 1.74 0.34 0.69
-1.47 0.55
1907 -0.40 -1.10 0.69 0.07 1.00 0.23 0.24 -2.05 -0.31 -0.70
-2.67 -1.10
1908 -0.15 -0.55 0.41 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.36 -1.22 -1.31 -0.22
-0.38 -0.55
1909 -0.77 -1.71 0.94 0.09 1.00 0.24 -2.54 -3.21 -1.26 -0.51
-1.03 -1.71
1910 -0.16 0.00 -0.16 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.18 0.91 -0.19 -0.60
-1.32 0.00
1911 -0.38 0.02 -0.40 0.09 1.00 0.24 -0.37 1.25 -1.34 -0.55
1.12 0.02
1912 0.06 -0.23 0.29 0.06 1.00 0.22 -1.32 -0.99 0.16 0.79
0.20 -0.23
1913 0.08 0.29 -0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.68 0.02 -1.15 0.99
-0.07 0.29
1914 0.09 0.84 -0.75 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.51 -0.37 0.47 3.50
-0.93 0.84
1915 0.11 -0.91 1.01 0.06 1.00 0.22 -0.20 -1.59 -2.40 0.61
-0.95 -0.91
1916 -0.35 -0.51 0.16 0.13 1.00 0.26 0.46 -1.26 -1.37 1.65
-2.04 -0.51
1917 0.18 -0.02 0.20 0.11 1.00 0.25 -1.95 -1.60 1.89 -0.78
2.35 -0.02
1918 0.71 -0.39 1.10 0.10 1.00 0.24 1.11 -0.49 -1.73 0.68
-1.52 -0.39
1919 -0.09 0.12 -0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.88 1.29 0.09 1.87
-1.79 0.12
1920 0.33 0.85 -0.52 0.07 1.00 0.22 2.05 2.16 -0.36 0.93
-0.51 0.85
1921 0.29 0.75 -0.46 0.10 1.00 0.24 3.97 2.43 -0.68 -1.35
-0.62 0.75
1922 0.66 -0.23 0.89 0.12 1.00 0.26 -0.60 0.22 0.00 0.12
-0.88 -0.23
1923 -0.66 -1.84 1.19 0.12 1.00 0.26 -1.53 -1.74 -3.76 0.02
-2.20 -1.84
1924 0.49 -0.46 0.95 0.08 1.00 0.23 -1.60 -0.68 -1.93 0.64
1.25 -0.46
1925 0.30 1.10 -0.80 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.66 0.70 -0.63 3.49
0.30 1.10
1926 0.47 0.06 0.41 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.06 -0.51 0.02 0.75
0.12 0.06
1927 0.23 0.10 0.14 0.11 1.00 0.25 -0.58 -2.17 -1.54 3.18
1.60 0.10
1928 -0.82 -1.21 0.39 0.11 1.00 0.25 0.42 -0.20 -3.05 -2.14
-1.09 -1.21
1929 0.00 -1.25 1.26 0.15 1.00 0.28 -3.24 0.57 -1.51 -1.02
-1.06 -1.25
1930 1.00 1.42 -0.42 0.16 1.00 0.29 1.78 1.81 0.59 1.58
1.34 1.42
1931 -0.67 -0.21 -0.46 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.29 1.18 -2.95 1.21
-0.20 -0.21
1932 -0.32 0.27 -0.59 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.54 0.03 -1.68 1.74
0.74 0.27
1933 0.65 0.36 0.29 0.12 1.00 0.26 -0.33 -0.86 1.64 1.77
-0.43 0.36
1934 0.56 0.98 -0.42 0.12 1.00 0.26 0.37 1.88 -0.48 1.88
1.27 0.98
1935 -0.56 -0.37 -0.20 0.09 1.00 0.24 0.30 -1.94 0.11 -0.05
-0.25 -0.37
1936 -0.09 1.48 -1.57 0.19 1.00 0.33 0.03 1.84 2.96 1.86
0.71 1.48
1937 1.77 2.39 -0.62 0.19 1.00 0.32 2.82 2.55 1.32 2.26
3.01 2.39
1938 0.58 0.91 -0.33 0.09 1.00 0.24 0.59 -0.07 -0.60 2.49
2.14 0.91
1939 0.31 0.71 -0.40 0.08 1.00 0.23 -0.22 -0.15 0.04 0.99
2.88 0.71
1940 0.20 0.42 -0.22 0.15 1.00 0.28 -0.95 2.26 0.72 0.67
-0.60 0.42
1941 -0.03 -0.20 0.17 0.14 1.00 0.28 -2.00 -1.34 -1.20 3.70
-0.17 -0.20
1942 0.11 -0.50 0.61 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.14 -1.04 -1.47 -0.32
0.20 -0.50
1943 0.36 0.69 -0.33 0.07 1.00 0.22 1.55 0.88 0.99 0.69
-0.64 0.69
1944 0.12 -0.50 0.62 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.67 -1.25 -1.58 1.18
0.83 -0.50
1945 0.57 0.71 -0.14 0.10 1.00 0.25 1.21 -0.53 -0.86 1.81
1.91 0.71
1946 0.48 0.64 -0.16 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.17 0.28 -0.18 1.62
0.31 0.64
1947 0.69 1.20 -0.51 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.18 1.48 1.69 1.43
1.20 1.20
1948 0.00 0.67 -0.67 0.08 1.00 0.23 2.10 1.66 0.03 0.74
-1.18 0.67
1949 -0.21 0.11 -0.32 0.14 1.00 0.27 1.26 1.76 -1.34 -0.14
-1.01 0.11
1950 0.83 0.73 0.09 0.10 1.00 0.24 2.24 0.91 -0.14 -0.52
1.18 0.73
1951 -0.13 -0.34 0.21 0.07 1.00 0.22 0.78 -1.83 -1.25 -1.23
1.84 -0.34
1952 -0.13 -0.38 0.25 0.12 1.00 0.26 1.78 -0.91 -1.17 -0.26
-1.34 -0.38
1953 0.95 1.11 -0.16 0.11 1.00 0.25 1.80 0.21 3.01 0.37
0.16 1.11
1954 0.12 0.32 -0.20 0.10 1.00 0.24 -0.60 2.11 -0.57 0.70
-0.05 0.32
1955 0.02 -0.76 0.77 0.09 1.00 0.24 -2.65 -2.42 -2.22 1.42
2.09 -0.76
1956 -0.26 -0.94 0.68 0.07 1.00 0.22 -2.32 0.39 0.12 -0.73
-2.15 -0.94
1957 -0.15 -0.31 0.16 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.09 -0.53 -2.06 1.32
-0.19 -0.31
1958 -0.08 -0.90 0.82 0.09 1.00 0.24 -1.29 -1.07 -1.05 -0.77
-0.31 -0.90
1959 0.83 0.98 -0.16 0.15 1.00 0.28 1.03 0.66 0.44 1.32
1.47 0.98
1960 1.13 1.02 0.11 0.13 1.00 0.27 0.63 1.88 0.92 1.39
0.29 1.02
1961 0.05 0.17 -0.11 0.10 1.00 0.25 -0.12 0.10 1.47 0.19
-0.81 0.17
1962 -0.45 -1.01 0.56 0.09 1.00 0.24 1.27 -0.52 -2.15 -1.65
-2.00 -1.01
1963 0.11 0.79 -0.68 0.18 1.00 0.31 0.43 3.15 -0.33 -0.07
0.77 0.79
1964 -0.21 -0.09 -0.13 0.15 1.00 0.28 0.64 1.02 -0.78 -0.42
-0.90 -0.09
1965 -0.82 -0.82 0.00 0.10 1.00 0.24 0.62 -1.64 -0.03 -1.74
-1.30 -0.82
1966 0.07 -0.13 0.20 0.06 1.00 0.22 -2.47 0.26 1.97 0.46
-0.87 -0.13
1967 -0.22 0.21 -0.44 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.69 0.29 -0.80 0.13
0.75 0.21
1968 -0.57 0.10 -0.67 0.13 1.00 0.27 1.18 -1.20 1.37 -1.07
0.22 0.10
1969 0.55 0.54 0.01 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.21 -0.61 0.90 0.37
1.82 0.54
1970 0.37 0.40 -0.04 0.10 1.00 0.24 -1.25 0.51 2.27 0.05
0.44 0.40
1971 -0.31 -0.12 -0.19 0.07 1.00 0.22 -0.71 0.81 -0.64 0.03
-0.07 -0.12
1972 0.25 1.18 -0.94 0.08 1.00 0.23 0.18 0.44 1.62 3.00
0.68 1.18
1973 0.30 0.85 -0.55 0.10 0.99 0.25 -0.02 0.76 1.31 2.85
-0.66 0.85
1974 0.07 0.12 -0.05 0.11 0.99 0.25 0.86 -0.41 0.62 -0.30
-0.18 0.12
1975 -0.49 0.51 -1.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 0.45 1.72 -1.09 0.62
0.84 0.51
1976 0.08 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.99 0.22 -0.28 1.72 -1.36 -0.23
0.05 -0.02
1977 -0.33 -9.99 0.00 0.08 0.99 0.23 -1.05 -0.01 -0.50 -0.90
-0.65 -0.62
1978 -0.30 -9.99 0.00 0.07 0.96 0.23 -0.98 0.92 0.14 -0.48
-1.07 -0.29
1979 0.06 -9.99 0.00 0.12 0.95 0.26 -0.73 0.75 1.02 -0.83
0.07 0.06
1980 0.93 -9.99 0.00 0.13 0.95 0.26 1.42 -0.37 1.23 1.02
-0.36 0.59

I am really sorry but I have to nag about that review - Confidentially I now need a hard
and if required extensive case for rejecting - to support Dave Stahle's and really as
soon as you can. Please
Keith
At 08:00 AM 5/28/03 -0400, you wrote:

Hi Keith,
Okay, here is a zipped archive containing Jan's ring-width measurement series. The
directory names are:
random
all
slope
flat
"All" contains files with "all" series; "slope" has those series Jan reckoned had
curvilinear growth trends; "flat" has those series with linear growth trends; "random"
are those series that Jan chose not to use. Note that I had to pull out the Mongolia
data set. I would love to give you it, but Gordon would go nuts if he found out. I don't
know any way around this problem.
The file names are:
01ath Athabasca
02bor Boreal
03cam Camphill
04que Quebec
05upp Upper Wright
06got Gotland
07jae Jaemtland
08lau Lauenen (site not used in paper)
09tir Tirol
10tor Tornestrask
11man Mangazeja
13pol Polar Urals
14tay Taymir
15zha Zhaschiviersk
I can't put my hands on the derived RCS indices for these sites just now, but I can find
them if you want them. This at least gives you the basic data and how it was partitioned
by Jan. I did not participate in this stage of the analysis, so any questions about it
should be directed to Jan.
Cheers,
Ed
--
==================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook
Doherty Senior Scholar and
Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York 10964 USA
Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
Phone: 845-365-8618
Fax: 845-365-8152
==================================

--
Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.
Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[1]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/

--

==================================
Dr. Edward R. Cook
Doherty Senior Scholar and
Director, Tree-Ring Laboratory
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
Palisades, New York 10964 USA
Email: drdendro@ldeo.columbia.edu
Phone: 845-365-8618
Fax: 845-365-8152
==================================

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Professor Keith Briffa,
Climatic Research Unit
University of East Anglia
Norwich, NR4 7TJ, U.K.

Phone: +44-1603-593909
Fax: +44-1603-507784
[2]http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa[3]/

References

1. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
2. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/
3. http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/people/briffa/